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The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 10 September 2020

This is the 10 September 2020 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks (open access). In a nutshell, the potential fragility of the U.S. both in domestic and international terms looms high on the agenda. Meanwhile, the COVID19 pandemic continues to play havoc while avoidance and denial do not relent. As a […]

Dynamics of contagion and the COVID-19 Second Wave

This article, using scientific knowledge, looks at the COVID-19 dynamics of contagion to identify ideal measures that should be taken to stop contagion. These ideal measures, then, compared with real policies will allow assessing the potential for a second wave. Our aim, for this series, is to find ways to improve how we foresee if, […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly: An experiment in crowd-sourcing for horizon scanning

This is an experiment with paper.li as a way to collect ideas, notably through Twitter but also Facebook mainly for horizon scanning. The resulting weekly can be accessed here. As I am only too aware of information overload, the choice of  a weekly rather than daily paper made sense. With time, I’ll try to see if it is possible to improve results by changing various settings. Right now, the content is heavily biased towards technology, although none of my criteria included them. One of the hypotheses that would allow explaining this phenomenon might be that one of my keyword was #future, and that future orientated tweets might tend to be dominated by technological innovations. Furthermore people using Twitter are most […]

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The COVID-19 Pandemic, Surviving and Reconstructing

The COVID-19 pandemic is now a global fact. It still involves many uncertainties. At present and in the near future, we need to handle the ongoing pandemic as a global catastrophic crisis with complex cascading impacts. We also need to start thinking about reconstruction. We are here concerned with reconstruction that will allow polities to […]

COVID-19 Antiviral Treatments and Scenarios

The world is now struggling to know how to face the COVID-19 pandemic. We want to know how long the pandemic will last. Actually, what we want to know is when the pandemic will end and when life will be able to resume normally. As we explained in the opening article for this series, to […]

Resources to monitor the Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic

The new Coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic outbreak became a pandemic, with still much uncertainty. Thus, we must continue to closely monitor it, using the best possible ressources available. All actors should also develop scenarios to make sure they are ready across all possible futures. Here, you will find a list of reliable sources to monitor the […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 12 March 2020

(Credit Image: ESO/P. Horálek) This is the 12 March 2020 issue of our weekly scan for geopolitical risks (open access). Editorial: This week is heavily focused on the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic increasingly spreads to all sectors. This prefigures what will be our lives over the next weeks and more likely months. The signals also […]

Horizon Scanning and Monitoring for Warning: Definition and Practice

(Rewritten and revised edition) Horizon scanning and monitoring for warning are part of the family of activities used to foresee the future, anticipate uncertainty and manage risks. Their practice is crucial for successful strategic foresight and warning, risk management, futurism or any anticipatory activity. While monitoring is a generic and common term used for many […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 17 January 2018

Each week, our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals, which point to new, emerging, escalating or stabilising problems. As a result, they indicate how trends or dynamics evolve. Here, we focus on signals that could favourably or unfavourably impact private and public actors in international security. That field is broadly known under various […]

The Water Sigils

The Water Sigils, focusing on global water security starts The Sigils, a series of daily papers scanning the horizon for weak signals related to various issues relevant to the security of societies, polities, nations and citizens. They use Paper.Li as curation platform. The Water Sigils can be read by clicking on the image below. ——– […]