The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 28 May 2020

This is the 28 May 2020 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks (open access). Editorial: This week, as increasingly clear over the last month, many signals relate to and indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic’s cascading effects are at work. We highlight here some of those picked up by the scan and […]

COVID-19 and Food Insecurity Early Warning

This brief article is a first early warning about food insecurity resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. The danger is rising and deserves further and more in-depth analysis and monitoring. As the COVID-19 pandemic developed, we immediately added food insecurity on our watch list of issues to monitor (see our COVID-19 section). To date, mid-May 2020, […]

Models for the COVID-19 Second Wave

Europe, the Middle East, Oceania, part of South Asia and the U.S. progressively exit the COVID-19 lockdowns and relax the most severe social distancing measures. In the meantime, China, Singapore and South Korea, the countries that were hit first and succeeded in controlling the first wave, appear to face different dynamics after easing of anti-COVID-19 […]

The Strange Case of Sweden in the COVID-19 Pandemic

Many countries hit by the pandemic are now exiting or about to exit the period of most stringent isolation measures. Indeed, they estimate they succeeded in controlling contagion. Meanwhile, they avoided the dreaded break down of their health-care system, which could have taken place if hospitals had been overwhelmed. In Europe, one country stands apart, […]

The COVID-19, Immunity and Isolation Exit Strategy

One of the critical and key uncertainty about the COVID-19, among so many, is the immunity a patient may have after recovery from the COVID-19. In other words, can someone who recovered from the COVID-19 catch the disease again and infect other people again? As long as we have neither vaccine nor fully efficient antiviral […]

COVID-19 Antiviral Treatments and Scenarios

The world is now struggling to know how to face the COVID-19 pandemic. We want to know how long the pandemic will last. Actually, what we want to know is when the pandemic will end and when life will be able to resume normally. As we explained in the opening article for this series, to […]

The COVID-19 Pandemic, Surviving and Reconstructing

The COVID-19 pandemic is now a global fact. It still involves many uncertainties. At present and in the near future, we need to handle the ongoing pandemic as a global catastrophic crisis with complex cascading impacts. We also need to start thinking about reconstruction. We are here concerned with reconstruction that will allow polities to […]

Worst Case Baseline Scenarios for the COVID-19 Pandemic

On 11 March Chancellor Merkel warned that the SARS-CoV-2 – the virus for the COVID-19 – could infect between 60 and 70% of Germany’s population (DW, “Coronavirus: Germany’s Angela Merkel urges ‘solidarity and reason‘”, 11 March 2020). She was accused to spread panic (Ibid.). Chancellor Merkel’s point was to highlight the very real danger Germans […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 12 March 2020

(Credit Image: ESO/P. Horálek) This is the 12 March 2020 issue of our weekly scan for geopolitical risks (open access). Editorial: This week is heavily focused on the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic increasingly spreads to all sectors. This prefigures what will be our lives over the next weeks and more likely months. The signals also […]

Why the COVID-19 is NOT a Black Swan Event

As the COVID-19 spreads throughout the world, its cascading and multiple impacts deepen. As a result, fear spreads. Meanwhile, finance and business firms now started promoting the idea that the COVID-19 epidemic was a “black swan event”. For example, Goldman Sachs, in its Top of Mind, issue 86 (February 28, 2020) featured an article titled […]