Monitoring and Warning

Our Foresights and Insights

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Previous issues and archives for The Weekly can be found here.

Impact on Issues

? ➃  Capacity (and willingness) of each actor to stabilize the situation  (critical uncertainty)
➚➚➚  / Iraq vs Kurds – Syria  – 

Continue reading Signals: Heavy Fighting between Kurds and Iraqi Forces; Kurdish Factions; Russia; Israel

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals…
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Each section of the scan below focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present information, … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
19 October 2017

Impact on Issues

Bashar al-Assad government decision regarding the Federation of Northern Syria… and Turkey (critical uncertainty)
➚ ➃  Turkey acting against the Federation of Northern Syria
➚  ?

Continue reading Signal: The Kurdish-led SDF Defeats the Islamic State in Raqqa

Impact on Issues

/ ➄ Failed peace talks / Continued war in Libya

On Monday 16 October 2017 evening, the Council of Representatives (COR) dialogue committee suspended its participation in the Tunisia-hosted peace negotiations with the Government of National Accord (GNA).
For previous and other signals check the
Horizon Scanning Board
According to the official statement and members of the COR’s committee, … Continue reading Signal: Libya’s Council of Representatives Dialogue Committee Abandons Peace Negotiations

Impact on Issues

➚➚ ➂  Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain
 ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally

On 16 October 2017 morning, Carlos Puigdemont answered Madrid’s ultimatum (see previous signal) through a letter (as displayed below). … Continue reading Signals: Catalonia Answers Spain, Spain Jails two Catalan Leaders…

Impact on Issues

➚➚➚  / Iraq vs Kurds – Syria  – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension
➚➚  Iran Iraqi and regional influence
Russia, U.S.,

Continue reading Signals: Kurd Military Command on Kirkuk; Iran again…

Impact on Issues

➚➚  / Iraq vs Kurds – Syria  – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension
➚  Iran Iraqi and regional influence
Russia, U.S.,

Continue reading Signals: Towards War In Iraq between Kurds and Iraqis, Iran…

Impact on Issues

➚ Activation of NATO Art. 5 by the U.S. (Still not started, seen as far away, yet issue on the agenda) 
NATO military involvement in North Korea, thus EU and European states’ military entanglement in North Korea
➚  ➁  World War
Independent European Common Foreign and Security Policy –

Continue reading Signal: North Korea Discussed as an Issue among NATO Ambassadors…

Impact on Issues

➚ ➀ China-U.S. Tension – ➚ Chinese influence (including OBOR/New Silk Road) – U.S. influence – USD supremacy – Uncertainty: American East Asian strategic presence and East Asian stability

China has become the third larger exporter of arms in the world, … Continue reading Signal: A View from China – its Rising Arms Exports

Impact on Issues

 ➂  Catalonia vs Spain
 ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally

Should Madrid be conciliant, the way Catalonia offered to operationalise the independence it declared could be stabilising. … Continue reading Signals: Catalonia Declaration of Independence, Spain Reaction (updated 16:04 CET 11 Oct 2017)