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? ➃ Capacity (and willingness) of each actor to stabilize the situation (critical uncertainty)
➚➚➚ ➃ /➄ Iraq vs Kurds – ➚ ➄ Syria –
Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals…
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Each section of the scan below focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present information, … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
19 October 2017
? ➄ Bashar al-Assad government decision regarding the Federation of Northern Syria… and Turkey (critical uncertainty)
➚➚ ➃ Turkey acting against the Federation of Northern Syria
➚ ?
… Continue reading Signal: The Kurdish-led SDF Defeats the Islamic State in Raqqa
➚ ➀ / ➄ Failed peace talks / Continued war in Libya
On Monday 16 October 2017 evening, the Council of Representatives (COR) dialogue committee suspended its participation in the Tunisia-hosted peace negotiations with the Government of National Accord (GNA).
For previous and other signals check the
Horizon Scanning Board
According to the official statement and members of the COR’s committee, … Continue reading Signal: Libya’s Council of Representatives Dialogue Committee Abandons Peace Negotiations
➚➚ ➂ Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain
➚ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally
On 16 October 2017 morning, Carlos Puigdemont answered Madrid’s ultimatum (see previous signal) through a letter (as displayed below). … Continue reading Signals: Catalonia Answers Spain, Spain Jails two Catalan Leaders…
➚➚➚ ➃ /➄ Iraq vs Kurds – ➚ ➄ Syria – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension
➚➚ Iran Iraqi and regional influence
➚ Russia, U.S.,
… Continue reading Signals: Kurd Military Command on Kirkuk; Iran again…
➚➚ ➃ /➄ Iraq vs Kurds – ➚ ➄ Syria – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension
➚ Iran Iraqi and regional influence
➚ Russia, U.S.,
… Continue reading Signals: Towards War In Iraq between Kurds and Iraqis, Iran…
➚ Activation of NATO Art. 5 by the U.S. (Still not started, seen as far away, yet issue on the agenda)
➚ ➁ NATO military involvement in North Korea, thus EU and European states’ military entanglement in North Korea
➚ ➁ World War
➘ Independent European Common Foreign and Security Policy –
… Continue reading Signal: North Korea Discussed as an Issue among NATO Ambassadors…
➚ ➀ ➁ China-U.S. Tension – ➚ Chinese influence (including OBOR/New Silk Road) – ➘ U.S. influence – ➘ USD supremacy – Uncertainty: American East Asian strategic presence and East Asian stability
China has become the third larger exporter of arms in the world, … Continue reading Signal: A View from China – its Rising Arms Exports
➘➚ ➂ Catalonia vs Spain
➚ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally
Should Madrid be conciliant, the way Catalonia offered to operationalise the independence it declared could be stabilising. … Continue reading Signals: Catalonia Declaration of Independence, Spain Reaction (updated 16:04 CET 11 Oct 2017)
