This is the 2 July 2020 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks (open access). Using horizon scanning, each week, we collect weak – and less weak – signals. These point to new, emerging, escalating or stabilising problems. As a result, they indicate how trends or dynamics evolve. Below the scan itself, […]
All our articles for the category Monitoring and Warning
Dynamics of contagion and the COVID-19 Second Wave
This article, using scientific knowledge, looks at the COVID-19 dynamics of contagion to identify ideal measures that should be taken to stop contagion. These ideal measures, then, compared with real policies will allow assessing the potential for a second wave. Our aim, for this series, is to find ways to improve how we foresee if, […]
COVID-19 and Food Insecurity Early Warning
This brief article is a first early warning about food insecurity resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. The danger is rising and deserves further and more in-depth analysis and monitoring. As the COVID-19 pandemic developed, we immediately added food insecurity on our watch list of issues to monitor (see our COVID-19 section). To date, mid-May 2020, […]
COVID-19 Antiviral Treatments and Scenarios
The COVID-19 Pandemic, Surviving and Reconstructing
The COVID-19 pandemic is now a global fact. It still involves many uncertainties. At present and in the near future, we need to handle the ongoing pandemic as a global catastrophic crisis with complex cascading impacts. We also need to start thinking about reconstruction. We are here concerned with reconstruction that will allow polities to […]
The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 12 March 2020
(Credit Image: ESO/P. Horálek) This is the 12 March 2020 issue of our weekly scan for geopolitical risks (open access). Editorial: This week is heavily focused on the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic increasingly spreads to all sectors. This prefigures what will be our lives over the next weeks and more likely months. The signals also […]
Resources to monitor the Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic
The new Coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic outbreak became a pandemic, with still much uncertainty. Thus, we must continue to closely monitor it, using the best possible ressources available. All actors should also develop scenarios to make sure they are ready across all possible futures. Here, you will find a list of reliable sources to monitor the […]
U.S. National Security Commission for Artificial Intelligence Interim report – Signal
Credit Image: Henri Kissinger, 5 Nov 19 NSCAI Conference, @MignonClyburn
The National Security Commission for Artificial Intelligence Interim report, published on 4 November 2019, is a must read for anyone interested in international relations, geopolitics, national and international security. All those concerned must consider the U.S. position, strategic foresight, and now AI as an element of power. Read more…
“Made in China 2025” in Trouble? – Signal
On 14 July 2019, new Chinese statistics revealed that growth in China was lowering. Media sensationally reported the news. For example, The New York Times titled “China’s Economic Growth Hits 27-Year Low as Trade War Stings” (Keith Bradsher). Meanwhile what is happening in the area of new technologies? Are other indicators available? Indeed, the famous […]
The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 11 July 2019
Credit Image: ESO/José Francisco Salgado (josefrancisco.org)
Using horizon scanning, each week, we collect weak – and less weak – signals. These point to new, emerging, escalating or stabilising problems. As a result, they indicate how trends or dynamics evolve.