Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals for strategic, political & geopolitical issues of interest to private and public actors.
Brief Editorial: It increasingly looks as if the world “functioned” on different interactive international layers: the overshadowing U.S.-China tension, change of paradigm and rise of artificial intelligence plus space, … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
21 June 2018
Monitoring and Warning
Our Foresights and Insights
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Impact on Issues and Uncertainties
➚➚ Escalating AI-power race notably between the U.S. on the one hand, China and in a lesser way Russia on the other.
➚➚ Redrawing of the power map of the world along AI-power status lines
➚➚ Rising uncertainty regarding the emerging AI-world
➚ Possible widening of the range of response,
Horizon Scanning Board
Signals: China Planetary 3D Strategy, Deep Sea Resources in the South China Sea
The April and May 2018 Chinese successful deep sea explorations in the South China Sea lead to novel future possibilities, including a rising uncertainty in the security and resource sectors for all actors, states and companies alike, involving a complete redrawing of the influence map, of the capabilities needed and relatedly of the strategies and policies to develop and implement.
Horizon Scanning Board
Warning – Ebola Outbreak in the DRC Spreading – to Put under Watch
Risk level and Uncertainties
➚ Risk level
➃ very high at the national level (WHO assess.)
➂ high at the regional level (WHO assess.)
➀ weak at the global level (WHO assess.)
➚ ➀ Risk for actors without activities within the DRC –
… Continue reading Warning – Ebola Outbreak in the DRC Spreading – to Put under Watch
Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals…
This week, from Iran to Korea through China, Iraq, a degrading situation in Afghanistan, and a couple of interesting articles for the future of war(s) …
For other weak (and strong) signals, read below our latest complimentary Weekly horizon scanning…
Each section of the scan focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
17 May 2018
Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals…
Each section of the scan below focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present information, … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
18 January 2018
Horizon Scanning Board
Signals: U.S. Sponsored Kurdish-led Border Army in Syria and Responses
Impacts and Consequences
The main critical uncertainty related to the American move is first the level of this commitment and then its consistency over time. As a result the survival of the Syrian autonomous region, the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria has also become more uncertain. The outcome in terms of American regional and global influence is also uncertain. … Continue reading Signals: U.S. Sponsored Kurdish-led Border Army in Syria and Responses
Horizon Scanning Board
Signal: China – France Strengthening Relations
Impacts and Consequences
- Increased likelihood to see a return to a more influential and independent foreign policy of the European states holders of veto power at UN Security Council (France and UK);
- Increased likelihood to see a multipolar world settling in, however with also an
- Increased likelihood to see a global perception of a rising Chinese global influence;
… Continue reading Signal: China – France Strengthening Relations
Horizon Scanning Board
Signals: Jerusalem – The U.S. Defeated at the U.N., China Seeks Advantage?
Impacts and Consequences
- Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the global U.S. influence and power lowered;
- Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the regional (Middle East) U.S. influence and power lowered.
Should China step in successfully as peace broker between Israelis and Palestinians
- Increased likelihood to see global perception of a new Chinese regional (Middle East) influence
- Increased likelihood to see global perception of a rising Chinese global influence
- Increased likelihood to see rising tensions between the U.S.
… Continue reading Signals: Jerusalem – The U.S. Defeated at the U.N., China Seeks Advantage?
Horizon Scanning Board
Signal: Google Opens Google AI China Center and Chinese Reactions
Impacts and Consequences
Resulting from the Google AI China Center’s opening and then operations, we estimate rising likelihoods to see :
- Redrawing of the power map of the world along AI-power status lines
- Rising competition regarding AI between U.S. and Chinese mammoth Companies
- Human talents as stake in rising AI competition
- “Forced”
… Continue reading Signal: Google Opens Google AI China Center and Chinese Reactions