Monitoring and Warning

Our Foresights and Insights

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Previous issues and archives for The Weekly can be found here.

Each week, our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals, which point to new, emerging, escalating or stabilising problems. As a result, they indicate how trends or dynamics evolve. Here, we focus on signals that could favourably or unfavourably impact private and public actors in international security. That field is broadly known under various … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 24 January 2018

Each week, our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals. Those signals point to new, emerging, escalating or stabilising problems. As a result, they indicate how trends or dynamics evolve. Here, we focus on signals that could favourably or unfavourably impact private and public actors in international security. This domain is broadly known under … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 10 January 2018

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals for global changes, national and international security, political and geopolitical risk of interest to private and public actors.

France faces an escalating protest movement. This movement is called the “Yellow Vests” or “Yellow Vest”. The French government appears to be always late in the way it answers it; political analysts appear to be surprised by what is happening and to struggle to understand. Meanwhile, violence increases. To contribute to the explanation of the … Continue reading Understanding the French Yellow Vest Movement and its Crescendo (1)

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals for global changes, national and international security, political and geopolitical risk of interest to private and public actors.

This article provides a first assessment of the prospects for the German 3 billion euros funding for its new November 2018 Artificial Intelligence Strategy in the global AI-power race. It notably finds that this constitutes a possible challenge in the current AI-power race for private and public actors alike: Germany strikes back but the road ahead is competitive. The possible quantum disruption to AI might be one fruitful strategic choice for Germany, as well as for France and the UK (in a geographical and historical European perspective)…. Read more

[Fully rewritten version v3] To exist, risk and foresight products as well as warnings must be delivered to those who must act upon them, the customers, clients or users. These anticipation analyses must also be actionable, which means that they need to include the right information necessary to see action taken. Yet, if you deliver … Continue reading Revisiting Timeliness for Strategic Foresight and Warning and Risk Management

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties Critical Uncertainty ➚➚➚ Disruption of the current AI-power race for private and public actors alike – The U.S. takes a very serious lead in the race. ➚➚  Accelerating expansion of AI ➚➚  Accelerating emergence of the AI-world ➚➚ Increased odds to see the U.S. consolidating its lead in the AI-power race ➚➚  Escalating AI-power … Continue reading $2 Billion for Next Gen Artificial Intelligence for U.S. Defence – Signal

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ➚➚ Accelerating expansion of AI ➚➚ Accelerating emergence of the AI-world ➚ Redrawing of the power map of the world along AI-power status lines ➚ Escalating AI-power race notably between the U.S. and China. ➚ Rising challenge for the rest of the world to catch up ➚ China  influence and capability in terms … Continue reading Impacts of Chinese Baidu new no-code tool to build AI-programs – Signal