Monitoring and Warning

Our Foresights and Insights

Do you want to find out how we help our clients with monitoring and warning for political and geopolitical uncertainty? Read more…

Previous issues and archives for The Weekly can be accessed here.

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… This week is an unedited scan where readers can access the complete result of the crowdsourcing effort, before the articles have been sorted out according to relevance, strength of signal and impacted areas and issues. Each section in an edited scan focuses on signals … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
22 June 2017

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… This week is an unedited scan where readers can access the complete result of the crowdsourcing effort, before the articles have been sorted out according to relevance, strength of signal and impacted areas and issues. Each section in an edited scan focuses on signals … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
15 June 2017

As events accelerate both within Syria on the battlefield and in the region, this article monitors and analyse these developments. It seeks to answer the question: do the unfolding states of affairs increase, or on the contrary decrease, the likelihood to see an intensification of Turkish escalation against the Syrian Kurds and, de facto, Northern Syria? We shall … Continue reading The Middle East Powder Keg and the Great Battle for Raqqa

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Note the importance of geopolitical uncertainty for businesses, as exemplified once more with the so far diplomatic crisis with Qatar… Yet, the corporate sector needs not being prey to political and geopolitical uncertainty but can use the same tools and methods as those used … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
8 June 2017

On 24 June 2016 morning, the U.K. announced the results of the referendum on the Brexit: 51.9% of the population voted to leave the EU against 48.1% wanting to remain, while the turnout reached 72,2% (BBC Referendum Results). This vote triggered among the media, financial and European political elite a “shock”, consternation, and a host … Continue reading Lessons from and for the Brexit – Geopolitics, Uncertainties, and Business (2)

This is the second part of the series looking for a third way to – truly – fight against the Islamic State’s – and other salafi-jihadi’s – terrorist attacks at home, away from polarisation. Unfortunately, in the light of the spat of terrorist attacks in Bangladesh, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, in France again and again, in Germany … Continue reading Fighting the Islamic State’s Terrorism at Home – Truly Defend and Strike Back

On 12 and 13 June 2016, two terrorist attacks claimed by the Islamic State (also known as ISIS) reminded the Western population, with immediate impact on the U.K. “Brexit” polls (see below), that the war waged against them and all non-Salafis had not ended. The first attack took place against a gay nightclub in Orlando, U.S., killing 50 and … Continue reading Fighting the Islamic State’s Terrorism at Home – The Third Way

As the Islamic State loses ground in Mesopotamia, in the west in Syria with the defeat in Palmyra (e.g. Adam Withnall The Independent, 27 March 2016), in the north with an increasingly large territory recaptured by the Kurds (e.g. Avi Asher-Schapiro, Vice News, 22 Dec 2015) and in the east in Iraq, first with the battle of Ramadi … Continue reading The Islamic State and Terrorist Attacks: License to Kill

 last update: selected 10 videos… updated dates for all the latest issue of magazines, Amaq in Bengali, al-Bayan in Bengali. The defeated attack by the Islamic State on Ben Guerdane in Tunisia on 7 March 2016 probably indicated a worrying shift in tactics and strategy, which must be considered (e.g. Vanessa Szakal, “Mainstream Media on Ben Guerdane: victory … Continue reading An Updated Guide to the Islamic State Psyops

In this series, which emphasises some of the major strategic dangers related to the war against the Islamic State, we focused first on geographical risks resulting potentially from a narrow understanding of the Islamic State’s implantation and outreach. We thus moved from a Mesopotamian theatre of war  to a regional one (“From Syria to the Region“), then to the … Continue reading At War against a Global Islamic State – The Fall into Extreme Sunni-Shi’ite Tensions