Monitoring and Warning

Our Foresights and Insights

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Previous issues and archives for The Weekly can be found here.

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals for global changes, national and international security, political and geopolitical risk of interest to private and public actors. … Continue reading Turmoil in Europe – The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 6 December 2018

France faces an escalating protest movement. This movement is called the “Yellow Vests”. The French government appears to be always late in the way it answers it; political analysts appear to be surprised by what is happening and to struggle to understand. Meanwhile, violence increases.
To contribute to the explanation of the French Yellow Vest movement, … Continue reading Understanding the French Yellow Vests Movement and its Crescendo (1)

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals for global changes, national and international security, political and geopolitical risk of interest to private and public actors. … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 29 November 2018

This article provides a first assessment of the prospects for the German 3 billion euros funding for its new November 2018 Artificial Intelligence Strategy in the global AI-power race. It notably finds that this constitutes a possible challenge in the current AI-power race for private and public actors alike: Germany strikes back but the road ahead is competitive. The possible quantum disruption to AI might be one fruitful strategic choice for Germany, as well as for France and the UK (in a geographical and historical European perspective)…. Read more

[Fully rewritten version v3] To exist, risk and foresight products as well as warnings must be delivered to those who must act upon them, the customers, clients or users. These anticipation analyses must also be actionable, which means that they need to include the right information necessary to see action taken. … Continue reading Revisiting Timeliness for Strategic Foresight and Warning and Risk Management

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

Critical Uncertainty ➚➚➚ Disruption of the current AI-power race for private and public actors alike – The U.S. takes a very serious lead in the race.
➚➚  Accelerating expansion of AI
➚➚  Accelerating emergence of the AI-world
➚➚ Increased odds to see the U.S.

Continue reading $2 Billion for Next Gen Artificial Intelligence for U.S. Defence – Signal

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

➚➚ Accelerating expansion of AI
➚➚ Accelerating emergence of the AI-world
➚ Redrawing of the power map of the world along AI-power status lines
➚ Escalating AI-power race notably between the U.S.

Continue reading Impacts of Chinese Baidu new no-code tool to build AI-programs – Signal

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

➚➚ Escalating AI-power race notably between the U.S. on the one hand, China and in a lesser way Russia on the other.
➚➚ Redrawing of the power map of the world along AI-power status lines
➚➚ Rising uncertainty regarding the emerging AI-world
Possible widening of the range of response,

Continue reading Signal: The Pentagon Researches Artificial Intelligence Systems for Nuclear Missile Launch Anticipation

The April and May 2018 Chinese successful deep sea explorations in the South China Sea lead to novel future possibilities, including a rising uncertainty in the security and resource sectors for all actors, states and companies alike, involving a complete redrawing of the influence map, of the capabilities needed and relatedly of the strategies and policies to develop and implement.