Credit Image: Henri Kissinger, 5 Nov 19 NSCAI Conference, @MignonClyburn
The National Security Commission for Artificial Intelligence Interim report, published on 4 November 2019, is a must read for anyone interested in international relations, geopolitics, national and international security. All those concerned must consider the U.S. position, strategic foresight, and now AI as an element of power. Read more…
On 14 July 2019, new Chinese statistics revealed that growth in China was lowering. Media sensationally reported the news. For example, The New York Times titled “China’s Economic Growth Hits 27-Year Low as Trade War Stings” (Keith Bradsher). Meanwhile what is happening in the area of new technologies? Are other indicators available? Indeed, the famous […]
Critical Uncertainty ➚ Possible challenge in the current AI-power race for private and public actors alike – Germany strikes back, but the road ahead is competitive. The possible quantum disruption to AI might be one fruitful strategic choice for Germany, as well as for France and the UK (in a geographical and historical European perspective).
➚➚ Accelerating expansion of AI
➚➚ Accelerating emergence of the AI-world
➚➚ Increased odds to see the quantum technologies impacting AI (and vice versa) ➚➚Escalating global AI-power race ➚➚Rising challenge for the rest of the world to catch up
➚ Potential for escalating tension between Europe, the U.S. as well as China
Critical Uncertainty ➚➚➚ Disruption of the current AI-power race for private and public actors alike – The U.S. takes a very serious lead in the race. ➚➚ Accelerating expansion of AI ➚➚ Accelerating emergence of the AI-world ➚➚ Increased odds to see the U.S. consolidating its lead in the AI-power race. ➚➚ Escalating AI-power race notably between the U.S. and China. ➚➚ Rising challenge for the rest of the world to catch up ➚ Potential for escalating tension U.S. – China, including between AI actors […]
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ➚➚ Accelerating expansion of AI ➚➚ Accelerating emergence of the AI-world ➚ Redrawing of the power map of the world along AI-power status lines ➚ Escalating AI-power race notably between the U.S. and China. ➚ Rising challenge for the rest of the world to catch up ➚ China influence and capability in terms […]
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ➚➚ Escalating AI-power race notably between the U.S. on the one hand, China and in a lesser way Russia on the other. ➚➚ Redrawing of the power map of the world along AI-power status lines ➚➚ Rising uncertainty regarding the emerging AI-world ➚ Possible widening of the range of response, […]
The April and May 2018 Chinese successful deep sea explorations in the South China Sea lead to novel future possibilities, including a rising uncertainty in the security and resource sectors for all actors, states and companies alike, involving a complete redrawing of the influence map, of the capabilities needed and relatedly of the strategies and policies to develop and implement.
Risk level and Uncertainties ➚ Risk level ➃ very high at the national level (WHO assess.) ➂ high at the regional level (WHO assess.) ➀ weak at the global level (WHO assess.) ➚ ➀ Risk for actors without activities within the DRC – Put the risk under watch Main concerned actors: travel and tourism, NGOs, Mining companies (notably Cobalt, Copper) – […]
Impacts and Consequences The main critical uncertainty related to the American move is first the level of this commitment and then its consistency over time. As a result the survival of the Syrian autonomous region, the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria has also become more uncertain. The outcome in terms of American regional and global […]
Impacts and Consequences Increased likelihood to see a return to a more influential and independent foreign policy of the European states holders of veto power at UN Security Council (France and UK); Increased likelihood to see a multipolar world settling in, however with also an Increased likelihood to see a global perception of a rising […]