Horizon Scanning Board

Our Foresights and Insights

Strengthening or weakening of the trend, problem, issue:

Strengthening, Escalation
Still strong or high but no change in intensity
Still strong or high but decreasing intensity
Decreasing intensity towards medium intensity of issue
Stabilising

Level of intensity of the issue (HIIK Conflict Barometer typology):

➀ dispute
➁ non-violent crisis
➂ violent crisis
➃ limited war
➄ war

The horizon scanning board displays OSINT signals we select daily as particularly interesting, among all those signals we identify, analyse and use, as well as brief warnings. They pertain to the main issues we monitor and to new ones. Our comments are kept very succinct to allow for rapid browsing.

For each signal, you will find how they impact main issues, the direction of the trend, the level of the crisis. Keys are  shown on the right hand-side and further explained here.

For a board tailor-made to your needs, find out how we help our clients with monitoring and warning for political and geopolitical uncertainty? Read more…

Impacts and Consequences

The main critical uncertainty related to the American move is first the level of this commitment and then its consistency over time. As a result the survival of the Syrian autonomous region, the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria has also become more uncertain.  The outcome in terms of American regional and global influence is also uncertain.Continue reading Signals: U.S. Sponsored Kurdish-led Border Army in Syria and Responses

Impacts and Consequences

  • Increased likelihood to see a return to a more influential and independent foreign policy of the European states holders of veto power at UN Security Council (France and UK);
  • Increased likelihood to see a multipolar world settling in, however with also an
  • Increased likelihood to see a global perception of a rising Chinese global influence;

Continue reading Signal: China – France Strengthening Relations

Impacts and Consequences

  • Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the global U.S. influence and power lowered;
  • Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the regional (Middle East) U.S. influence and power lowered.

Should China step in successfully as peace broker between Israelis and Palestinians

  • Increased likelihood to see global perception of a new Chinese regional (Middle East) influence
  • Increased likelihood to see global perception of a rising Chinese global influence
  • Increased likelihood to see rising tensions between the U.S.

Continue reading Signals: Jerusalem – The U.S. Defeated at the U.N., China Seeks Advantage?

Impacts and Consequences

Resulting from the Google AI China Center’s opening and then operations, we estimate rising likelihoods to see :

  • Redrawing of the power map of the world along AI-power status lines
  • Rising competition regarding AI between U.S. and Chinese mammoth Companies
  • Human talents as stake in rising AI competition
  • “Forced”

Continue reading Signal: Google Opens Google AI China Center and Chinese Reactions

Impacts and Consequences

If the planned center truly becomes operational and efficient, which cannot be estimated with confidence currently considering unknowns,

  • Increased likelihood to mitigate spillover from the Libyan conflict

Facts and analysis

Related

Continue reading Signal: Libya and Italy Increase Efforts to Combat Migrant Smuggling

On 6 December 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump declared that the U.S. recognises Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and, as a result will move its embassy there (see sources below), while also reasserting commitment to the peace process and specifying that the U.S. would support a two-state solution, if approved by both the Israelis and the Palestinians. … Continue reading Signal: U.S. President Trump’s Statement on Jerusalem

Nato has released its latest 2017 Strategic Foresight Analysis Report.
According to General Denis Mercier, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT) interviewed by Reuters, the report will be used with a SACT “companion report that maps out what NATO should do to respond to these trends in the spring” … “to inform the 2019 NATO political guidance”. … Continue reading Signal: Latest NATO 2017 Strategic Foresight Analysis Report

Impacts and Consequences

If Russia succeeds in gathering major actors in a congress in Sochi, which we estimate as likely (55% to 70%)

  • Increased likelihood to see, at the end of the process, a constructive peace settling in Syria
  • Increased likelihood to see the birth of a Federal Syria
  • Increased likelihood to see the survival of the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria
  • Increased likelihood to see a serious lowering of tensions in the Middle East and even some kind of stabilisation
  • Increased Russian influence

(Nota: The symbolic board has been moved to the end of the analysis and before the sources/signals)

Facts and analysis

As stated by Russian President Putin, … Continue reading Signals: A Russian-backed Congress in Sochi for Future Peace in Syria?

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

? Degree of influence of Russia on Turkey compared with Turkey’s perception of threat related to a Kurdish polity on its southern flank (near future critical uncertainty)
?

Continue reading Signal: Russia’s Putin Hosts Syria’s Assad for Working Meeting on Future Syria at Peace

A new state of play is emerging in the Middle East, which redraws the regional web of influence, following the military victory over the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and the concurrent and related negotiations for the end of the war in Syria. At the global level, the current jockeying taking place in the Middle East and its result will also have consequences as it impacts perceptions of global players, as well as influence and thus capability. On 16 November, three major diplomatic events centred around Saudi Arabia and Iran’s influence and involving China and Israel took place which impacted this state of play.