Horizon Scanning Board

Our Foresights and Insights

Strengthening or weakening of the trend, problem, issue:

Strengthening, Escalation
Still strong or high but no change in intensity
Still strong or high but decreasing intensity
Decreasing intensity towards medium intensity of issue
Stabilising

Level of intensity of the issue (HIIK Conflict Barometer typology):

➀ dispute
➁ non-violent crisis
➂ violent crisis
➃ limited war
➄ war

The horizon scanning board displays OSINT signals we select daily as particularly interesting, among all those signals we identify, analyse and use, as well as brief warnings. They pertain to the main issues we monitor and to new ones. Our comments are kept very succinct to allow for rapid browsing.

For each signal, you will find how they impact main issues, the direction of the trend, the level of the crisis. Keys are  shown on the right hand-side and further explained here.

For a board tailor-made to your needs, find out how we help our clients with monitoring and warning for political and geopolitical uncertainty? Read more…

Impact on Issues

/ ➄ Failed peace talks / Continued war in Libya

On Monday 16 October 2017 evening, the Council of Representatives (COR) dialogue committee suspended its participation in the Tunisia-hosted peace negotiations with the Government of National Accord (GNA).
For previous and other signals check the
Horizon Scanning Board
According to the official statement and members of the COR’s committee, … Continue reading Signal: Libya’s Council of Representatives Dialogue Committee Abandons Peace Negotiations

Impact on Issues

➚➚ ➂  Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain
 ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally

On 16 October 2017 morning, Carlos Puigdemont answered Madrid’s ultimatum (see previous signal) through a letter (as displayed below). … Continue reading Signals: Catalonia Answers Spain, Spain Jails two Catalan Leaders…

Impact on Issues

➚➚➚  / Iraq vs Kurds – Syria  – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension
➚➚  Iran Iraqi and regional influence
Russia, U.S.,

Continue reading Signals: Kurd Military Command on Kirkuk; Iran again…

Impact on Issues

➚➚  / Iraq vs Kurds – Syria  – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension
➚  Iran Iraqi and regional influence
Russia, U.S.,

Continue reading Signals: Towards War In Iraq between Kurds and Iraqis, Iran…

Impact on Issues

➚ Activation of NATO Art. 5 by the U.S. (Still not started, seen as far away, yet issue on the agenda) 
NATO military involvement in North Korea, thus EU and European states’ military entanglement in North Korea
➚  ➁  World War
Independent European Common Foreign and Security Policy –

Continue reading Signal: North Korea Discussed as an Issue among NATO Ambassadors…

Impact on Issues

➚ ➀ China-U.S. Tension – ➚ Chinese influence (including OBOR/New Silk Road) – U.S. influence – USD supremacy – Uncertainty: American East Asian strategic presence and East Asian stability

China has become the third larger exporter of arms in the world, … Continue reading Signal: A View from China – its Rising Arms Exports

Impact on Issues

 ➂  Catalonia vs Spain
 ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally

Should Madrid be conciliant, the way Catalonia offered to operationalise the independence it declared could be stabilising. … Continue reading Signals: Catalonia Declaration of Independence, Spain Reaction (updated 16:04 CET 11 Oct 2017)

Impact on Issues

+ ➂  Catalonia vs Spain (see further outlined scenarios below) –  ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally
Warning (Opportunity) – Opportunity to plan ahead for the EU and its member states,

Continue reading Signal: Political Dealings and Scenarios in Spain vs Catalonia

Impact on Issues

➘  / Iraq vs Kurds – Syria  – ➘ Russia Conundrum
Russia Influence – ➘ Middle East Tension –

Continue reading Signals: Russia Unveils Policy on Iraq Kurds Independence, Iraqis and Kurds discuss…

Impact on Issues

➚ U.S. Decline – ➚ Russian Influence – ➘  Middle East Regional Tension – ➚➚ ➂  Global tension

Among many other impacts, we shall notably stress here that this visit shows the skill of Russian diplomacy and the pertinence of Russian strategy as Russia seems to be highly likely to succeed in  maintaining and developing good relationships with two current ‘competing’ … Continue reading Signal: State visit of Saudi King in Russia