Horizon Scanning Board

Our Foresights and Insights

Strengthening or weakening of the trend, problem, issue:

Strengthening, Escalation
Still strong or high but no change in intensity
Still strong or high but decreasing intensity
Decreasing intensity towards medium intensity of issue
Stabilising

Level of intensity of the issue (HIIK Conflict Barometer typology):

➀ dispute
➁ non-violent crisis
➂ violent crisis
➃ limited war
➄ war

The horizon scanning board displays OSINT signals we select daily as particularly interesting, among all those signals we identify, analyse and use, as well as brief warnings. They pertain to the main issues we monitor and to new ones. Our comments are kept very succinct to allow for rapid browsing.

For each signal, you will find how they impact main issues, the direction of the trend, the level of the crisis. Keys are  shown on the right hand-side and further explained here.

For a board tailor-made to your needs, find out how we help our clients with monitoring and warning for political and geopolitical uncertainty? Read more…

Impact on Issues ➘➙ ➃/➄ The Islamic State at War /Libya The war waged by the Islamic State goes on…  and the situation in Libya is not yet pacified. Both the war in Libya and the activity of the Islamic State (and al-Qaeda) must continue being monitored.   U.S. air strikes kill 17 Islamic State … Continue reading Signal: U.S. air strikes kill IS fighters in Libya

Impact on Issues ➙ ➃/➄ The Islamic State at War / South East Asia The Filipino army is still fighting the Islamic State in Marawi. The threat coming from the Islamic State in South East Asia (SEA) must neither be forgotten nor underestimated. Furthermore, the Islamic State may also develop the capacity to use South … Continue reading Signal: The Islamic State in the Philippines

Impact on Issues ➙➚ ➁/➄ Iraq Kurds Referendum The Iraqi Kurds would need allies if they want to survive. However correct and right their right to self-determination, being landlocked, surrounded by countries opposing this right is hardly conducive to state-building. The question surrounding the Kurdish referendum is all the more crucial considering that the Islamic State remains a threat and thus that Iraq is still at war. Turnout high as Iraqi Kurds defy threats to hold independence vote ERBIL/SULAIMANIYA, Iraq (Reuters) – Kurds voted in large numbers in an independence referendum in northern Iraq on Monday, ignoring pressure from Baghdad, threats from Turkey and Iran, and international warnings that the vote may ignite yet more regional conflict. The vote organized … Continue reading Signal: High Turnout for the Iraqi Kurds Referendum

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