Scenarios and Indicators

Our Foresights and Insights

Do you want to find out about how we help our clients envisioning possible futures ahead and thus reducing uncertainty with scenarios and indicators?  Read more…

This article explores three major challenges actors face when defining and carrying out their policies and answers in terms of high performance computing power (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI), considering the political and geopolitical consequences of the feedback relationship linking AI in its Deep Learning component and computing power – hardware – or rather HPC. It builds on the first part, … Continue reading High Performance Computing Race and Power – Artificial Intelligence, Computing Power and Geopolitics (3)

This article focuses on the political and geopolitical consequences of the feedback relationship linking Artificial Intelligence (AI) in its Deep Learning component and computing power – hardware – or rather high performance computing power (HPC). It builds on a first part where we explained and detailed this connection.
There we underlined notably three typical phases where computation is required: creation of the AI program, … Continue reading Artificial Intelligence, Computing Power and Geopolitics (2)

In this article, part of our series on the possible futures of the US dollar supremacy, we focus our attention on the scenario “The Rise of the Renminbi”, which we deem more interesting in the way it would unfold. In the previous article, we highlighted three different main lead scenarios that could potentially describe the developments that will take place in the future, … Continue reading Scenario The Rise of the Renminbi – Futures of the US Dollar Supremacy

With this series, trying to understand the possible futures of the US dollar supremacy, we have analysed the currency functions (medium of exchange, store of value, unit of account) that make the dollar the necessary currency together with the challenges looming over the petrodollar system, the perspective of the renminbi as a leading international currency and the possible impacts of cryptocurrencies over the international monetary system. … Continue reading Scenarios for the Future of the US Dollar Supremacy

China has entered a “new era” where it should “take centre stage in the world” said President Xi Jinping during his opening speech at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (18-24 October) (Xi Jinping: “Time for China to take centre stage”, BBC News, 18 October 2017). … Continue reading The Renminbi on the Tracks of the U.S. Dollar?

This article focuses mainly on the petrodollar system, which is at the heart of the U.S. dollar supremacy, and on the challenges it meets. Meanwhile, these trials start outlining potential futures for the international currency system.

In this article, we shall look further upon the impacts that currency internationalization has not only on the issuer’s economy but also on its foreign policy, international power and status, as stemming from each currency function (medium of exchange, unit of account, store of value, both at the private and the public level).  This will notably allow us to understand the main signals and data that we shall have to monitor and analyse to assess the future of the US dollar supremacy and, … Continue reading Towards the End of the US Dollar Supremacy? How Currency Internationalization Impacts State Power

Having evaluated the likelihood for each scenario for the future of Libya (see detail here), we shall now present updated likelihoods that account for changes that have taken place since we began the evaluations. Because both intervention and spillover are already undoubtedly occurring in Libya, our scenarios are now considered sub-scenarios of Scenario 2: Intervention and spillover instead of independent scenarios.   … Continue reading Final Scenario for the Future of Libya and their Likelihoods

Editor’s note: We have been monitoring “behind the scenes” the US Dollar Supremacy and the challenges it faces over the last couple of years. Indications show that it is now time to move towards strategic foresight analysis of the issue. This series results from this need and our in-depth analysis will constitute the building blocks for scenario analysis regarding the future of the US Dollar Supremacy.Continue reading Towards the End of the US Dollar Supremacy? Global Currency Fundamentals

In this article, however unlikely it would appear currently*, we shall assess the likelihood of a lasting victory by the Salafists — in other words, the ability of Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State to not only achieve victory, but also to maintain lasting control. By victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers. In the previous article, we evaluated the likelihood for the initial victory of both Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, finding that an Al-Qaeda victory was least unlikely. Now that intervention is already occurring, as we saw in our article on intervention scenarios, the “Salafist Victory” scenarios are considered to be sub-scenarios of … Continue reading Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya – A Lasting Salafist Victory

To access this article, you must become one of our members.
Methodological articles are also accessible through registration to our online course.

Log in if you are a member.