East Asia and Pacific

Our Foresights and Insights

The warming Arctic is the stage of an ongoing maritime, geopolitical and geo-economic revolution.

For example, end of August 2018, the Danish Maersk Company, one of the major ship owners in the world and the world’s largest container shipping company by both fleet size and cargo capacity, sent a first container ship using this route, in order to test its commercial use. The ship went from Vladivostok to Saint Petersburg, through the Bering Strait, following the northern coast of Siberia (Tom Embury-Morris, “Container Ship Crosses Arctic Route for First Time in History Due to Melting Sea Ice”, The Independent, 18 September, 2018).

Since 2013, each year, the number the number of Chinese cargo convoys using the Russian Northern Sea Route, also known as the North East passage, increases thanks to the rapid warming of the region, which transforms

This article focuses on the race to exascale computing and its multi-dimensional political and geopolitical impacts, a crucial response major actors are implementing in terms of High Performance Computing (HPC) power, notably for the development of their artificial intelligence (AI) systems.  It thus ends for now our series on HPC as driver of and stake for AI, among the five we identified in Artificial Intelligence – Forces, Drivers and Stakes: the classical big data, HPC and the race to quantum supremacy as related critical uncertainty, algorithms, “sensors and expressors”, and finally needs and usages.

The April and May 2018 Chinese successful deep sea explorations in the South China Sea lead to novel future possibilities, including a rising uncertainty in the security and resource sectors for all actors, states and companies alike, involving a complete redrawing of the influence map, of the capabilities needed and relatedly of the strategies and policies to develop and implement.

This article stresses the paradoxical character of a U.S. decline, and addresses the impossibility for the U.S. to accept its demise as superpower. It applies this framework to the case of the 2017 tensions with North Korea, and deduces a possible future path for the U.S. course of action, as well as possible levers regarding the U.S. … Continue reading The Paradox of U.S. Decline … and the Tensions with North Korea

Impact on Issues

➚ Activation of NATO Art. 5 by the U.S. (Still not started, seen as far away, yet issue on the agenda) 
NATO military involvement in North Korea, thus EU and European states’ military entanglement in North Korea
➚  ➁  World War
Independent European Common Foreign and Security Policy –

Continue reading Signal: North Korea Discussed as an Issue among NATO Ambassadors…

Impact on Issues

➚ ➀ China-U.S. Tension – ➚ Chinese influence (including OBOR/New Silk Road) – U.S. influence – USD supremacy – Uncertainty: American East Asian strategic presence and East Asian stability

China has become the third larger exporter of arms in the world, … Continue reading Signal: A View from China – its Rising Arms Exports

Impact on Issues

➃/➄ The Islamic State at War / South East Asia

The Filipino army is still fighting the Islamic State in Marawi. The threat coming from the Islamic State in South East Asia (SEA) must neither be forgotten nor underestimated.
Furthermore, the Islamic State may also develop the capacity to use South East Asia as new platform to re-launch or launch operations elsewhere. … Continue reading Signal: The Islamic State in the Philippines

Executive summary

The current and coming impacts of climate change are becoming equivalent to those of a long bombing. This can be seen with the damages wrought in Texas, Louisiana and Florida by hurricanes Harvey and Irma. In a few days, the total costs of these disasters has amounted to at least 290 billion USD,

Continue reading Climate Change: the Long Planetary Bombing

During March 2017, King Salman of Saudi Arabia ended a six weeks tour in Asia with a state visit in China and a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. This visit included the opportunity to start the negotiations about the integration of Saudi Arabia to the Chinese New Silk Road Grand strategy (Michael Tanchum, “Saudi Arabia the next stop on China’s maritime silk road”, … Continue reading Saudi Arabia and the Chinese New Silk Road

This article looks at the way the current militarization of maritime segments of the Chinese New Silk Road is implemented in the Arabian Sea, and related consequences on geopolitics, including for businesses. It is the second part of a series, the first one focusing on militarization in the South China Sea (Jean-Michel Valantin, “Militarizing the Chinese New Silk Road Part (Part1)”, … Continue reading Militarizing the Maritime New Silk Road (2) – In the Arabian Sea