Since 2008, when massive food riots took place, followed by the “Arab spring revolution” in 2011, Egypt has become a land of political, religious and social conflicts (Krista Mahr, “Bread is life: food and protest in Egypt“, Time Magazine, January 31, 2011; Georges Corm, Le Proche-Orient éclaté, 2012), some of them between armed militant and … Continue reading Egypt and Climate Security
The new constitution of the Arab Republic of Egypt, approved in January 2014, states, in four articles, the rights and duties of the state and of the citizens about the Suez Canal, the environment and natural resources, and the Nile. These articles have a political and strategic meaning in the current domestic security situation, dominated … Continue reading Security and Sustainability: the Future of Egypt?
The first sentence of the 2006 US Quadrennial Defence Review is “The United States is a nation engaged in what will be a long war”. Any civilian, military or factious leader in Afghanistan, could have written almost exactly the same after thirty-five years of war. And this war still goes on, but it now faces … Continue reading Afghanistan at a New Crossroad: Resource Curse or Asian integration?
Pakistan is internationally known for a wide array of geopolitical and domestic problems. It is stuck between India and Afghanistan, China and Iran, and is taken in a very uneasy alliance with the United States. The multiple violent disputes between factions defined along the mixed lines of region, religion, tribe, economy, family and politics are … Continue reading Pakistan and the “Long Storm”
We most probably need to get ready for a 2C global temperatures’ increase and its harsh impact on the world relatively rapidly, as a temperatures’ rise of 6C – and above – by the end of the century is increasingly probable. Indeed, interests and current challenges and tensions are most likely to favour shale fuels’ … Continue reading Pattern – Higher Global Temperatures, Earlier Impacts and the Shale Fuels Bounty
This post, as many others in the Chronicles of Everstate, can be read both as part of the scenarios on the future of the nation-state, as explained below, or as part of the section on Global Water Security. This shows how all issues are intertwined, and that the multiple existing feedbacks should not be ignored. … Continue reading 2013 – 2018 EVT – Learning from Water Privatization? (Panglossy)
This post was selected to be re-posted as part of AlertNet’s special multimedia report “The Battle for Water:” The Battle for Water – Global water security: moving towards worldwide assessment
Considering any issue in terms of strategic foresight and warning for national security demands, first and foremost, a minimal understanding of the issue itself, … Continue reading Building upon the 2012 “Global Water Security” IC Assessment
Global Water Security: a US Intelligence Community Assessment (pdf)
The ODNI has released the unclassified version of the latest US Intelligence Community Assessment on Global Water Security (Feb 2012). Very interesting! For thoughts on the ICA see Building upon the 2012 “Global Water Security” IC Assessment.
Click on the image below to download the ICA in pdf.
A Strategic Foresight and Warning Issue for National Security
In the light of the 31 january 2012 “Unclassified Statement for the Record on the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence” by James R. Clapper Director of National Intelligence, which identifies Water Security in the chapter on Significant State and Nonstate Intelligence Threats (p.29), … Continue reading Global Water Security