New Opposition Nexus

Our Foresights and Insights

France faces an escalating protest movement. This movement is called the “Yellow Vests”. The French government appears to be always late in the way it answers it; political analysts appear to be surprised by what is happening and to struggle to understand. Meanwhile, violence increases.
To contribute to the explanation of the French Yellow Vest movement, … Continue reading Understanding the French Yellow Vests Movement and its Crescendo (1)

The new constitution of the Arab Republic of Egypt, approved in January 2014, states, in four articles, the rights and duties of the state and of the citizens about the Suez Canal, the environment and natural resources, and the Nile. These articles have a political and strategic meaning in the current domestic security situation, dominated by rising tensions between the military, the Muslim Brotherhood, and a catastrophic economic situation, heightened by the environmental and international context of Egypt and of the Nile riparian countries. To understand the political and strategic situation of Egypt, today and during the twenty years to come we must consider the context of its current national sustainability crisis (Valantin, Egypt, climate change and the long resource … Continue reading Security and Sustainability: the Future of Egypt?

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The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 16 January 2014 – Rediscovering Politics?

Editorial – Rediscovering Politics? This week is particularly interesting, especially because of the emergence of new analyses, or rather of the rediscovery of fundamental political dynamics (and, of course, by political I do not mean politician) as fitting perfectly well current and future trends.
First, religion on the one hand, science in its high-tech and geo-engineering version, … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 16 January 2014 – Rediscovering Politics?

Weak Signals of Cracks in the Neoliberal Paradigm?

government, business, neoliberalism, Red (team) Analysis, paradigm shift, political risk, weak signal“Businesses run the world, they are better managed, more efficient at all levels, promote innovation and discoveries, and deliver better services and products than any other organization, notably governments and states’ administrations.” This is a hardly caricatured representation of the worldview we have increasingly known since at least the middle of the 1980s, … Continue reading Weak Signals of Cracks in the Neoliberal Paradigm?

In the Kantian framework, different kinds of agents pursue democracy at three levels: the individuals within a nation, the states in their relationships with one another and also with their citizens, and humankind. In this post we shall look at how individuals within a nation should behave if they want to truly abide by democratic principles. Should they rebel and when? Should they support war, and which type of war if any?

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Democracy and warThe summer 2013 has been fertile in upheavals and violent events, surrounded by heated controversies and very often by an absence of neutrality in the media. The international community is divided. As a result, informed and balanced judgements are difficult to achieve. Taking political decisions is thus even harsher than usual, bringing to the fore the cruel dilemma that are so often at the core of international politics. … Continue reading Democracy: the Key to Avoiding Future Wars? (1)

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No107, 4 July 2013

Horizon Scanning for National Security – No107 – Egypt: a complete game-changer – The events that have been taking place in Egypt as well as the reaction to them illustrate the potential end of a very shallow understanding of democracy since the end of World War II. This shallow understanding of democracy limited it to elections, thus to politician politics, with a complete disregard for all other values and ideals included within democracy and with a complete denial of the complex links existing between regime (democracy for example), state, and ruler (which is currently “the nation”). This shallow understanding went hand in hand with modernization…

Understanding how political authorities, in the past, managed to stabilize a protest movement sheds light on the political decisions taken in the present. This knowledge gives us tools and indicators to assess and monitor various contemporary situations and evaluate their future dynamics.

The pattern that has been emerging over at least the beginning of the second decade of the twenty-first century is a rising polarization within Western society – or societies. In this article, we identified and analysed the trend through the related signal – the 14 November 2012 strikes. We evaluated the evolution toward polarization as likely. … Continue reading Pattern – Towards Polarization in the Western World?

As described previously, Anonymous undertook a political mobilization to protest on 5th November 2012, notably against current austerity policies and destruction of public service. Here is what happened yesterday evening, as a result, in a few pictures, tweets and charts.
Re-enacting V for Vendetta final scene in London
In London, … Continue reading #Anonymous and #OpVendetta on #5Nov 2012