New Paradigm

Our Foresights and Insights

Why does it matter?

Assessing if we are in the midst of a paradigm shift is twice crucial.

First, and foremost, as human beings and actors living within societies, if such a change happens, then we need to be ready for the upheavals that precede and accompany such deep revolutions, as stakes, both ideological and material, are at work to try blocking change. We also need to understand what is happening to take the right decisions in our lives, with the right timing, to mitigate adverse impacts and favour positive ones.

Second, in terms of strategic foresight and warning analysis, the deepest layers of ideas organizing societies and their interactions are fundamental frameworks, within which any understanding must be located. If changes are in the making, then they will forcibly alter the future, while the present is most probably already being affected, giving rise to a feeling of unpredictability.

Actually, it is not so much that there is a novel unpredictability settling in, but that the lenses through which the world is analysed and then acted upon are inadequate.

As a result, and after having made a first assessment (“Towards a New Paradigm“) of the paradigmatic shift at work, we need to monitor carefully weak and rising signals of the evolutions taking place to constantly enhance our understanding, steer our decisions and thus enhance the odds to avoid surprise.

Find out below our latest foresights and insights on the emergence of a new paradigm and a new international order

Impact on Issues

➚➚➚  / Iraq vs Kurds – Syria  – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension
➚➚  Iran Iraqi and regional influence
Russia, U.S.,

Continue reading Signals: Kurd Military Command on Kirkuk; Iran again…

Impact on Issues

➚➚  / Iraq vs Kurds – Syria  – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension
➚  Iran Iraqi and regional influence
Russia, U.S.,

Continue reading Signals: Towards War In Iraq between Kurds and Iraqis, Iran…

Impact on Issues

➚ ➀ China-U.S. Tension – ➚ Chinese influence (including OBOR/New Silk Road) – U.S. influence – USD supremacy – Uncertainty: American East Asian strategic presence and East Asian stability

China has become the third larger exporter of arms in the world, … Continue reading Signal: A View from China – its Rising Arms Exports

The question of a U.S. decline is increasingly on the agenda as signals seem to pile up to indicate a relative loss of power status. The last instance of such dynamics at play is the 4 to 8 October 2017 state visit to Russia of King Salman Saudi Arabia King Salman, a long-standing close ally of the U.S. … Continue reading Sources of American Decline… and Power – The View from the U.S. National Intelligence Council

Impact on Issues

➘  / Iraq vs Kurds – Syria  – ➘ Russia Conundrum
Russia Influence – ➘ Middle East Tension –

Continue reading Signals: Russia Unveils Policy on Iraq Kurds Independence, Iraqis and Kurds discuss…

Impact on Issues

➚ U.S. Decline – ➚ Russian Influence – ➘  Middle East Regional Tension – ➚➚ ➂  Global tension

Among many other impacts, we shall notably stress here that this visit shows the skill of Russian diplomacy and the pertinence of Russian strategy as Russia seems to be highly likely to succeed in  maintaining and developing good relationships with two current ‘competing’ … Continue reading Signal: State visit of Saudi King in Russia

The second decade of the 21st century appears to be rough for the U.S.. Could it mean that American power is waning? The question of a putative decline of the U.S. regularly emerges in international relations and in the media since at least the 1970s (Kenneth Waltz; Theory of International Politics, 1979: 177-178). … Continue reading Which U.S. Decline? The View from the U.S. National Intelligence Council

This article focuses on the “rise of populism”, the second explanation given for two of the major recent political and geopolitical surprises – i.e. the Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as U.S. President, and a major concern for many regarding the future evolution of Europe, the EU, and more largely the liberal paradigm in its globalisation guise. … Continue reading Investigating the Rise of Populism (2) – Populism-Labelling and its Dangers

This article and the next focuses on the “rise of populism”, the second explanation given for two of the major recent political and geopolitical surprises – i.e. the Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as U.S. President.
Populism and its rise are potentially at the heart of a possible crisis in Europe, and world-wide, should “populist” … Continue reading Investigating the Rise of Populism – A Perfect Definition?

The world has entered a period where uncertainty rules and where surprises abound.
Focusing on 2016, the two major surprises usually singled out are the Brexit or the vote leading to the exit of the U.K. from the European Union, then the election of U.S. President Trump against favourite Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. Even though a short-term focus could let us believe that the turmoil only or mainly hits “the West”, … Continue reading Beyond the End of Globalisation – From the Brexit to U.S. President Trump

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