New Paradigm

Our Foresights and Insights

Why does it matter?

Assessing if we are in the midst of a paradigm shift is twice crucial.

First, and foremost, as human beings and actors living within societies, if such a change happens, then we need to be ready for the upheavals that precede and accompany such deep revolutions, as stakes, both ideological and material, are at work to try blocking change. We also need to understand what is happening to take the right decisions in our lives, with the right timing, to mitigate adverse impacts and favour positive ones.

Second, in terms of strategic foresight and warning analysis, the deepest layers of ideas organizing societies and their interactions are fundamental frameworks, within which any understanding must be located. If changes are in the making, then they will forcibly alter the future, while the present is most probably already being affected, giving rise to a feeling of unpredictability.

Actually, it is not so much that there is a novel unpredictability settling in, but that the lenses through which the world is analysed and then acted upon are inadequate.

As a result, and after having made a first assessment (“Towards a New Paradigm“) of the paradigmatic shift at work, we need to monitor carefully weak and rising signals of the evolutions taking place to constantly enhance our understanding, steer our decisions and thus enhance the odds to avoid surprise.

Find out below our latest foresights and insights on the emergence of a new paradigm and a new international order

“Killer Robots” worry the international community. From 13 to 17 November 2017, the Group of Governmental Experts on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS), also familiarly designed as “killer robots” met for the first time in Geneva (UN Office at Geneva). LAWS are, broadly speaking, autonomous systems (robots) animated by artificial intelligence, which can kill without human decision.  … Continue reading When Artificial Intelligence will Power Geopolitics – Presenting AI

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

? Unity of Arab States, willingness and capability to support Saudi Arabia, willingness and capability to counter growing Iranian influence, (critical uncertainties)
 ( conflict in Yemen) Saudi perception of Iranian expansion and resulting threat
➙ ?

Continue reading Signals: Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel…

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

➚ ➃  Reinforced jihadist front in Western Egypt
  Challenges to Egypt as it is squeezed between the Sinai and Western fronts
  Survival of the Islamic State
  Islamic State resurgence in the MENA region,

Continue reading Signal: Al Qaeda / Islamic State New Front In Western Egypt?

This article stresses the paradoxical character of a U.S. decline, and addresses the impossibility for the U.S. to accept its demise as superpower. It applies this framework to the case of the 2017 tensions with North Korea, and deduces a possible future path for the U.S. course of action, as well as possible levers regarding the U.S. … Continue reading The Paradox of U.S. Decline … and the Tensions with North Korea

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

? ➃  Short term – Willingness of Iraq to capitalize further on their military victory against the Kurds, notably capturing Kurdish oilfields (uncertainty)
➘ ? Medium to longer term – capacity of Iraq to govern legitimately over its multi-sectarian multi-ethnic population (critical uncertainty)
  / Iraq strength and international support
➘  Legitimacy of Iraqi Kurdish political authorities and parties
 Prospects for Iraqi Kurds’

Continue reading Signal: Still no Agreement – Iraqis Forces and Peshmergas

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Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

? Degree of influence of Russia – and now possibly Iran – on Turkey compared with Turkey’s perception of threat related to a Kurdish polity on its southern flank (critical uncertainty)
➚➚  Turkey’s perception of threat
➚➚ to  Survival of the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria
➚➚ to ➂ Constructive peace for Syria
  to  Middle East Tension
Iran influence
➚➚  Russia influence
 Threat to Israel
➚➚ ➃ U.S.

Continue reading Signals: Russia, Iran, Turkey – A Syrian Strategic Triangle

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

? Degree of influence of Russia on Turkey compared with Turkey’s perception of threat related to a Kurdish polity on its southern flank (critical uncertainty)
 to  Survival of the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria
➚ ➃ Russia influence trial

As the seventh round of Astana talks proceeds (30 Oct-31 Oct 2017), … Continue reading Signal: Russia to Support Deeper Involvement of Kurds in Post-War Syria

Impact on Issues

? ➃  Short term – Willingness of Iraq to capitalize further on their military victory against the Kurds, notably capturing Kurdish oilfields (uncertainty)
? Medium to longer term – capacity of Iraq to govern legitimately over its multi-sectarian multi-ethnic population (critical uncertainty)
➚  / Iraq strength and international support
➘➘➘ ➂ Legitimacy of Iraqi Kurdish political authorities and parties
➘➘➘ Prospects for Iraqi Kurds’

Continue reading Signals: Talks between Iraqi forces and Kurdish Peshmerga; President Barzani Steps Down; Iran…

Impact on Issues

Bashar al-Assad government decision regarding the further Turkish military actions regarding the Federation of Northern Syria and the Kurds (critical uncertainty)
Iran position considering a Turkish military action in Syria against the Federation of Northern Syria and the Kurds (critical uncertainty)
➚➚ ➃  Turkey acting militarily against the Federation of Northern Syria in Afrin
➚ ➚    Iran influence
➚  ➄ Syrian future
➚  ➃ Israel perception of threat
➚  Middle East Tension
➚  Russia influence trial
 U.S.

Continue reading Signal: Turkish President Erdogan Declares Afrin as Possible Next Military Target

Impact on Issues

 China opposes the financialization of the Chinese economy
➚ ? China will have to oppose the actors of global finance (high uncertainty)
  Successful development of Chinese economy
➚ Improvement of the economies of “countries under financialization”

Continue reading Signals: China’s Xi Jinping Thought, Real Economy and … Global Finance