New Paradigm

Our Foresights and Insights

It is twice crucial to assess if we are in the midst of a paradigm shift.

Being ready as human beings and actors to face a paradigm shift

First, and foremost, we are human beings and actors living within societies. As such, if such a change of paradigm takes place, then we need to be ready for the upheavals that precede and accompany such deep revolutions. Indeed, some actors with specific stakes, both ideological and material, are at work to try blocking change.  Meanwhile, others try to promote change. Struggles and battles ensue. As a result, we also need to understand what is happening to take the right decisions in our lives, with the right timing. We must try to mitigate adverse impacts and favour positive ones.

Dealing with a paradigm shift as a risk or strategic foresight and warning analyst

Second, in terms of strategic foresight and warning analysis,  it is imperative to consider a paradigm shift. Indeed, such a change means that the deepest layers of ideas organizing societies and their interactions will evolve. As these layers are fundamental frameworks within which any understanding must be located, then we need to comprehend the paradigm shift to foresee the future. Indeed, if changes are in the making, then they will forcibly alter the future. Meanwhile, the present is most probably already being affected, giving rise to a feeling of unpredictability and uncertainty.

Actually, it is not so much that there is a novel unpredictability settling in, but that the lenses through which the world is analysed and then acted upon are inadequate.

Thus, we provide you first with a first assessment of the paradigm shift at work: “Towards a New Paradigm“. Then, starting in 2012, we carefully and constantly monitor weak and rising signals of the evolutions taking place. As a result, we regularly write articles considering the ongoing paradigm shift. You will find them below, sorted by descending chronological order.

Our aim is to constantly help you enhancing your understanding, steering our decisions and thus enhancing the odds you can avoid surprise.

Find out below our latest foresights and insights on the emergence of a new paradigm and a new international order

A race has started for quantum technologies or quantum information systems (QIS). Indeed, considering initially and notably the consequences in terms of cryptology – dubbed a “crypto-apocalypse” – no country may allow another state or a foreign company to be the first to develop quantum computing.

However, since the initial worry about cryptology somehow triggered the current quantum revolution, the situation has changed, discoveries have taken place… read more

The warming Arctic is the stage of an ongoing maritime, geopolitical and geo-economic revolution.

For example, end of August 2018, the Danish Maersk Company, one of the major ship owners in the world and the world’s largest container shipping company by both fleet size and cargo capacity, sent a first container ship using this route, in order to test its commercial use. The ship went from Vladivostok to Saint Petersburg, through the Bering Strait, following the northern coast of Siberia (Tom Embury-Morris, “Container Ship Crosses Arctic Route for First Time in History Due to Melting Sea Ice”, The Independent, 18 September, 2018).

Since 2013, each year, the number the number of Chinese cargo convoys using the Russian Northern Sea Route, also known as the North East passage, increases thanks to the rapid warming of the region, which transforms

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals for global changes, national and international security, political and geopolitical risk of interest to private and public actors.

Editorial:  The New York Times’ article Why Jamal Khashoggi’s Killing Has Resonated” by Megan Specia ponders what many have been wondering lately. Why on earth would the murder of Mr Kashoggi, definitely an atrocious crime, definitely terrible for his family and definitely wrong, yet an event that hardly obviously belongs to international relations and even less to major historical events, take center stage not only in the media but also for international actors be they public or private?

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Editorial The evolution of the geopolitical situation around Iran increasingly  generates a feeling of déjà vu for European companies. Non-European actors, chiefly among them the U.S. take political, strategic and geopolitical  decisions in the name of their national interest (and lobby groups), including the interest … Continue reading Iran: Are European Firms Being Sacrificed Again? The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 31 May 2018

Impacts and Consequences Increased likelihood to see a return to a more influential and independent foreign policy of the European states holders of veto power at UN Security Council (France and UK); Increased likelihood to see a multipolar world settling in, however with also an Increased likelihood to see a global perception of a rising … Continue reading Signal: China – France Strengthening Relations

Impacts and Consequences Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the global U.S. influence and power lowered; Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the regional (Middle East) U.S. influence and power lowered. Should China step in successfully as peace broker between Israelis and Palestinians Increased likelihood to see global perception of a … Continue reading Signals: Jerusalem – The U.S. Defeated at the U.N., China Seeks Advantage?

This article focuses on Deep Learning, the sub-field of Artificial Intelligence that leads the current exponential development of the sector. As we seek to envision how a future AI-powered world will look and what it will mean to its actors, notably in terms of politics and geopolitics, it is indeed fundamental to first understand what is AI.
We shall first give examples of how Deep Learning is used in the real world. We distinguish two types of activities: classical AI-powered activities and totally new AI-activities, related to the very emergence of DL. In both cases we shall point out their revolutionary potential.
Then, we shall take a deeper dive in the world of Deep Learning, taking as practical example the evolution of Google’s DeepMind AI-DL program initially developed to win against human Go masters: AlphaGo, then AlphaGo Zero and finally AlphaZero. After briefly presenting where DL is located within AI, we shall focus first on Deep Neural Networks and Supervised Learning. Second we shall look at the latest evolution with Deep Reinforcement Learning and start wondering if a new AI-DL paradigm, which could revolutionise the current dogma regarding the importance of Big Data, is not emerging.

Impacts and Consequences Resulting from the Google AI China Center’s opening and then operations, we estimate rising likelihoods to see : Redrawing of the power map of the world along AI-power status lines Rising competition regarding AI between U.S. and Chinese mammoth Companies Human talents as stake in rising AI competition “Forced” introduction of “open … Continue reading Signal: Google Opens Google AI China Center and Chinese Reactions

“Killer Robots” worry the international community. From 13 to 17 November 2017, the Group of Governmental Experts on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS), also familiarly designed as “killer robots” met for the first time in Geneva (UN Office at Geneva). LAWS are, broadly speaking, autonomous systems (robots) animated by artificial intelligence, which can kill without … Continue reading When Artificial Intelligence will Power Geopolitics – Presenting AI

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ? Unity of Arab States, willingness and capability to support Saudi Arabia, willingness and capability to counter growing Iranian influence, (critical uncertainties) ➚ (➃ conflict in Yemen) Saudi perception of Iranian expansion and resulting threat ➙ ? Lebanon destabilisation ➚  ? Hezbollah influence in Lebanon ➚➚ Iran actualization of the Shia crescent to the Mediterranean … Continue reading Signals: Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel…