New Paradigm

Our Foresights and Insights

It is twice crucial to assess if we are in the midst of a paradigm shift.

Being ready as human beings and actors to face a paradigm shift

First, and foremost, we are human beings and actors living within societies. As such, if such a change of paradigm takes place, then we need to be ready for the upheavals that precede and accompany such deep revolutions. Indeed, some actors with specific stakes, both ideological and material, are at work to try blocking change.  Meanwhile, others try to promote change. Struggles and battles ensue. As a result, we also need to understand what is happening to take the right decisions in our lives, with the right timing. We must try to mitigate adverse impacts and favour positive ones.

Dealing with a paradigm shift as a risk or strategic foresight and warning analyst

Second, in terms of strategic foresight and warning analysis,  it is imperative to consider a paradigm shift. Indeed, such a change means that the deepest layers of ideas organizing societies and their interactions will evolve. As these layers are fundamental frameworks within which any understanding must be located, then we need to comprehend the paradigm shift to foresee the future. Indeed, if changes are in the making, then they will forcibly alter the future. Meanwhile, the present is most probably already being affected, giving rise to a feeling of unpredictability and uncertainty.

Actually, it is not so much that there is a novel unpredictability settling in, but that the lenses through which the world is analysed and then acted upon are inadequate.

Thus, we provide you first with a first assessment of the paradigm shift at work: “Towards a New Paradigm“. Then, starting in 2012, we carefully and constantly monitor weak and rising signals of the evolutions taking place. As a result, we regularly write articles considering the ongoing paradigm shift. You will find them below, sorted by descending chronological order.

Our aim is to constantly help you enhancing your understanding, steering our decisions and thus enhancing the odds you can avoid surprise.

Find out below our latest foresights and insights on the emergence of a new paradigm and a new international order

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ➚ ➃  Reinforced jihadist front in Western Egypt ➚ ➃ Challenges to Egypt as it is squeezed between the Sinai and Western fronts ➚ ➄ Survival of the Islamic State ➚ ➄ Islamic State resurgence in the MENA region, notably Libya ➚ ➄ Strengthening of al-Qaeda in the MENA region ➚ ➄ Reinforced linkages with other jihadist groups and … Continue reading Signal: Al Qaeda / Islamic State New Front In Western Egypt?

This article stresses the paradoxical character of a U.S. decline, and addresses the impossibility for the U.S. to accept its demise as superpower. It applies this framework to the case of the 2017 tensions with North Korea, and deduces a possible future path for the U.S. course of action, as well as possible levers regarding … Continue reading The Paradox of U.S. Decline … and the Tensions with North Korea

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ➚ ? ➃  Short term – Willingness of Iraq to capitalize further on their military victory against the Kurds, notably capturing Kurdish oilfields (uncertainty) ➘ ? Medium to longer term – capacity of Iraq to govern legitimately over its multi-sectarian multi-ethnic population (critical uncertainty) ➚ ➃  /➄ Iraq strength and international support ➘ ➂ Legitimacy of Iraqi Kurdish political authorities and parties ➘ Prospects for Iraqi Kurds’ independence and even autonomy ➙ ➃  Iran’s influence in Iraq and in the region ➘ ➃  U.S. influence in the region ➘ Middle East American order (Other issues stable as regard to this signal only – a full assessment would need to consider events in Lebanon and Yemen) On 5 November 2017, the ongoing negotiations between … Continue reading Signal: Still no Agreement – Iraqis Forces and Peshmergas

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Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ? Degree of influence of Russia – and now possibly Iran – on Turkey compared with Turkey’s perception of threat related to a Kurdish polity on its southern flank (critical uncertainty) ➚➚ ➃ Turkey’s perception of threat ➚➚➚ ➃ to ➂ Survival of the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria ➚➚ ➄ to ➂ Constructive peace for Syria ➘ ➃ to ➂ Middle … Continue reading Signals: Russia, Iran, Turkey – A Syrian Strategic Triangle

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ? Degree of influence of Russia on Turkey compared with Turkey’s perception of threat related to a Kurdish polity on its southern flank (critical uncertainty) ➚➚ ➃ to ➂ Survival of the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria ➚ ➃ Russia influence trial As the seventh round of Astana talks proceeds (30 Oct-31 Oct 2017), Russia’s envoy Alexander … Continue reading Signal: Russia to Support Deeper Involvement of Kurds in Post-War Syria

Impact on Issues ➚ ? ➃  Short term – Willingness of Iraq to capitalize further on their military victory against the Kurds, notably capturing Kurdish oilfields (uncertainty) ? Medium to longer term – capacity of Iraq to govern legitimately over its multi-sectarian multi-ethnic population (critical uncertainty) ➚ ➃  /➄ Iraq strength and international support ➘➘➘ ➂ Legitimacy of Iraqi Kurdish … Continue reading Signals: Talks between Iraqi forces and Kurdish Peshmerga; President Barzani Steps Down; Iran…

Impact on Issues ? ➄ Bashar al-Assad government decision regarding the further Turkish military actions regarding the Federation of Northern Syria and the Kurds (critical uncertainty) ? ➄ Iran position considering a Turkish military action in Syria against the Federation of Northern Syria and the Kurds (critical uncertainty) ➚➚➚ ➃  Turkey acting militarily against the Federation of Northern Syria in … Continue reading Signal: Turkish President Erdogan Declares Afrin as Possible Next Military Target

Impact on Issues ➚ ➁ China opposes the financialization of the Chinese economy ➚ ? China will have to oppose the actors of global finance (high uncertainty) ➚  Successful development of Chinese economy ➚ Improvement of the economies of “countries under financialization” (e.g. most of Western countries) ➚ Restart of prosperity trend within “countries under financialization” (e.g. most of … Continue reading Signals: China’s Xi Jinping Thought, Real Economy and … Global Finance

Impact on Issues ? ➃  Capacity (and willingness) of each actor to stabilize the situation  (critical uncertainty) ➚➚➚ ➃  /➄ Iraq vs Kurds – ➚ ➄ Syria  – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension ➘ ?➂ Legitimacy of Kurdish political authorities and parties ➚➚  Iran influence in Iraq and in the region ➚ ? ➃ Gulf Countries (uncertainty regarding policy) ➚ Russia ‘s involvement and stake ➚ Israel’s … Continue reading Signals: Heavy Fighting between Kurds and Iraqi Forces; Kurdish Factions; Russia; Israel

Impact on Issues ? ➄ Bashar al-Assad government decision regarding the Federation of Northern Syria… and Turkey (critical uncertainty) ➚➚ ➃  Turkey acting against the Federation of Northern Syria ➚  ? ➃ Iran influence (uncertainty regarding policy) ➚ ➃ Russia influence trial ➚ ➃ U.S. influence trial ➚ ? ➃ Gulf Countries (uncertainty regarding policy) ? Western NGOs and then businesses prospects in Syria ➚ ? ➄ Syrian future  (high uncertainty) … Continue reading Signal: The Kurdish-led SDF Defeats the Islamic State in Raqqa