New Paradigm

Our Foresights and Insights

Why does it matter?

Assessing if we are in the midst of a paradigm shift is twice crucial.

First, and foremost, as human beings and actors living within societies, if such a change happens, then we need to be ready for the upheavals that precede and accompany such deep revolutions, as stakes, both ideological and material, are at work to try blocking change. We also need to understand what is happening to take the right decisions in our lives, with the right timing, to mitigate adverse impacts and favour positive ones.

Second, in terms of strategic foresight and warning analysis, the deepest layers of ideas organizing societies and their interactions are fundamental frameworks, within which any understanding must be located. If changes are in the making, then they will forcibly alter the future, while the present is most probably already being affected, giving rise to a feeling of unpredictability.

Actually, it is not so much that there is a novel unpredictability settling in, but that the lenses through which the world is analysed and then acted upon are inadequate.

As a result, and after having made a first assessment (“Towards a New Paradigm“) of the paradigmatic shift at work, we need to monitor carefully weak and rising signals of the evolutions taking place to constantly enhance our understanding, steer our decisions and thus enhance the odds to avoid surprise.

Find out below our latest foresights and insights on the emergence of a new paradigm and a new international order

This article stresses the paradoxical character of a U.S. decline, and addresses the impossibility for the U.S. to accept its demise as superpower. It applies this framework to the case of the 2017 tensions with North Korea, and deduces a possible future path for the U.S. course of action, as well as possible levers regarding the U.S. … Continue reading The Paradox of U.S. Decline … and the Tensions with North Korea

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ➚ ? ➃  Short term – Willingness of Iraq to capitalize further on their military victory against the Kurds, notably capturing Kurdish oilfields (uncertainty) ➘ ? Medium to longer term – capacity of Iraq to govern legitimately over its multi-sectarian multi-ethnic population (critical uncertainty) ➚ ➃  /➄ Iraq strength and international support ➘ ➂ Legitimacy of Iraqi Kurdish political authorities and parties ➘ Prospects for Iraqi Kurds’ independence and even autonomy ➙ ➃  Iran’s influence in Iraq and in the region ➘ ➃  U.S. influence in the region ➘ Middle East American order (Other issues stable as regard to this signal only – a full assessment would need to consider events in Lebanon and Yemen) On 5 November 2017, the ongoing negotiations between … Continue reading Signal: Still no Agreement – Iraqis Forces and Peshmergas

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Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

? Degree of influence of Russia – and now possibly Iran – on Turkey compared with Turkey’s perception of threat related to a Kurdish polity on its southern flank (critical uncertainty)
➚➚  Turkey’s perception of threat
➚➚ to  Survival of the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria
➚➚ to ➂ Constructive peace for Syria
  to  Middle East Tension
Iran influence
➚➚  Russia influence
 Threat to Israel
➚➚ ➃ U.S.

Continue reading Signals: Russia, Iran, Turkey – A Syrian Strategic Triangle

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

? Degree of influence of Russia on Turkey compared with Turkey’s perception of threat related to a Kurdish polity on its southern flank (critical uncertainty)
 to  Survival of the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria
➚ ➃ Russia influence trial

As the seventh round of Astana talks proceeds (30 Oct-31 Oct 2017), … Continue reading Signal: Russia to Support Deeper Involvement of Kurds in Post-War Syria

Impact on Issues

? ➃  Short term – Willingness of Iraq to capitalize further on their military victory against the Kurds, notably capturing Kurdish oilfields (uncertainty)
? Medium to longer term – capacity of Iraq to govern legitimately over its multi-sectarian multi-ethnic population (critical uncertainty)
➚  / Iraq strength and international support
➘➘➘ ➂ Legitimacy of Iraqi Kurdish political authorities and parties
➘➘➘ Prospects for Iraqi Kurds’

Continue reading Signals: Talks between Iraqi forces and Kurdish Peshmerga; President Barzani Steps Down; Iran…

Impact on Issues

Bashar al-Assad government decision regarding the further Turkish military actions regarding the Federation of Northern Syria and the Kurds (critical uncertainty)
Iran position considering a Turkish military action in Syria against the Federation of Northern Syria and the Kurds (critical uncertainty)
➚➚ ➃  Turkey acting militarily against the Federation of Northern Syria in Afrin
➚ ➚    Iran influence
➚  ➄ Syrian future
➚  ➃ Israel perception of threat
➚  Middle East Tension
➚  Russia influence trial
 U.S.

Continue reading Signal: Turkish President Erdogan Declares Afrin as Possible Next Military Target

Impact on Issues

 China opposes the financialization of the Chinese economy
➚ ? China will have to oppose the actors of global finance (high uncertainty)
  Successful development of Chinese economy
➚ Improvement of the economies of “countries under financialization”

Continue reading Signals: China’s Xi Jinping Thought, Real Economy and … Global Finance

Impact on Issues

? ➃  Capacity (and willingness) of each actor to stabilize the situation  (critical uncertainty)
➚➚➚  / Iraq vs Kurds – Syria  – 

Continue reading Signals: Heavy Fighting between Kurds and Iraqi Forces; Kurdish Factions; Russia; Israel

Impact on Issues

Bashar al-Assad government decision regarding the Federation of Northern Syria… and Turkey (critical uncertainty)
➚ ➃  Turkey acting against the Federation of Northern Syria
➚  ?

Continue reading Signal: The Kurdish-led SDF Defeats the Islamic State in Raqqa

Impact on Issues

➚➚➚  / Iraq vs Kurds – Syria  – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension
➚➚  Iran Iraqi and regional influence
Russia, U.S.,

Continue reading Signals: Kurd Military Command on Kirkuk; Iran again…