Last updated on October 16th, 2018 at 07:26 pm Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ? Degree of influence of Russia – and now possibly Iran – on Turkey compared with Turkey’s perception of threat related to a Kurdish polity on its southern flank (critical uncertainty) ➚➚ ➃ Turkey’s perception of threat ➚➚➚ ➃ to ➂ Survival of the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern […]
All our articles for the category: International Order and New Paradigm
Signal: Russia to Support Deeper Involvement of Kurds in Post-War Syria
Last updated on October 16th, 2018 at 07:27 pm Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ? Degree of influence of Russia on Turkey compared with Turkey’s perception of threat related to a Kurdish polity on its southern flank (critical uncertainty) ➚➚ ➃ to ➂ Survival of the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria ➚ ➃ Russia influence trial As the seventh round of Astana […]
Signals: Talks between Iraqi forces and Kurdish Peshmerga; President Barzani Steps Down; Iran…
Last updated on March 15th, 2019 at 07:14 pm Impact on Issues ➚ ? ➃ Short term – Willingness of Iraq to capitalize further on their military victory against the Kurds, notably capturing Kurdish oilfields (uncertainty) ? Medium to longer term – capacity of Iraq to govern legitimately over its multi-sectarian multi-ethnic population (critical uncertainty) ➚ ➃ […]
Signal: Turkish President Erdogan Declares Afrin as Possible Next Military Target
Last updated on October 16th, 2018 at 07:29 pm Impact on Issues ? ➄ Bashar al-Assad government decision regarding the further Turkish military actions regarding the Federation of Northern Syria and the Kurds (critical uncertainty) ? ➄ Iran position considering a Turkish military action in Syria against the Federation of Northern Syria and the Kurds (critical uncertainty) ➚➚➚ ➃ […]
Signals: China’s Xi Jinping Thought, Real Economy and … Global Finance
Last updated on October 16th, 2018 at 07:30 pm Impact on Issues ➚ ➁ China opposes the financialization of the Chinese economy ➚ ? China will have to oppose the actors of global finance (high uncertainty) ➚ Successful development of Chinese economy ➚ Improvement of the economies of “countries under financialization” (e.g. most of Western countries) ➚ […]
Signals: Heavy Fighting between Kurds and Iraqi Forces; Kurdish Factions; Russia; Israel
Last updated on October 16th, 2018 at 07:30 pm Impact on Issues ? ➃ Capacity (and willingness) of each actor to stabilize the situation (critical uncertainty) ➚➚➚ ➃ /➄ Iraq vs Kurds – ➚ ➄ Syria – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension ➘ ?➂ Legitimacy of Kurdish political authorities and parties ➚➚ Iran influence in Iraq and in the region ➚ ? ➃ Gulf Countries (uncertainty regarding […]
Signal: The Kurdish-led SDF Defeats the Islamic State in Raqqa
Last updated on October 16th, 2018 at 07:30 pm Impact on Issues ? ➄ Bashar al-Assad government decision regarding the Federation of Northern Syria… and Turkey (critical uncertainty) ➚➚ ➃ Turkey acting against the Federation of Northern Syria ➚ ? ➃ Iran influence (uncertainty regarding policy) ➚ ➃ Russia influence trial ➚ ➃ U.S. influence trial ➚ ? ➃ Gulf Countries (uncertainty regarding policy) ? Western NGOs and […]
Signals: Kurd Military Command on Kirkuk; Iran again…
Last updated on October 16th, 2018 at 07:31 pm Impact on Issues ➚➚➚ ➃ /➄ Iraq vs Kurds – ➚ ➄ Syria – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension ➚➚ Iran Iraqi and regional influence ➚ Russia, U.S., Gulf Countries Conundrum ➘ Russia Influence ➘ U.S. influence – ➙ U.S.weight (unwilling? influence) The Iraqi attack on Peshmergas-controlled Kirkuk continued on 16 October and, […]
Signals: Towards War In Iraq between Kurds and Iraqis, Iran…
Last updated on October 16th, 2018 at 07:37 pm Impact on Issues ➚➚ ➃ /➄ Iraq vs Kurds – ➚ ➄ Syria – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension ➚ Iran Iraqi and regional influence ➚ Russia, U.S., Gulf Countries Conundrum ➘ Russia Influence ➘ U.S. influence – ➚ U.S.weight (unwilling? influence) Around Kirkuk, skirmishes have now taken place in the early hours […]
Signal: A View from China – its Rising Arms Exports
Last updated on October 16th, 2018 at 07:37 pm Impact on Issues ➚ ➀ ➁ China-U.S. Tension – ➚ Chinese influence (including OBOR/New Silk Road) – ➘ U.S. influence – ➘ USD supremacy – Uncertainty: American East Asian strategic presence and East Asian stability China has become the third larger exporter of arms in the world, even though it […]