War

Our Foresights and Insights

War is a game-changer. It brings pain, destruction and death. It profoundly impacts the collective identity of societies and nations. It changes societies in ways that would have been unthinkable before. It creates new political forms. It changes strategy and tactics. It generates and spreads scientific discoveries that deeply affects geopolitics, the art of war and societies. It changes the balance of power, redraws maps and upsets geopolitics and status quo.

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals for global changes, national and international security, political and geopolitical risk of interest to private and public actors. … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 29 November 2018

The U.S. Navy is under higher and growing pressure from climate and ocean change. This situation is emphasized in The Impact of Sea-Level Rise and Climate Change on Department of Defense Installations on Atolls in the Pacific Ocean (Curt D. Storlazzi, Stephen B. Gingerich et al., February 2018, full pdf report), … Continue reading The U.S. Navy vs Climate and Ocean Change Insecurity (1)

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

➚➚ Escalating AI-power race notably between the U.S. on the one hand, China and in a lesser way Russia on the other.
➚➚ Redrawing of the power map of the world along AI-power status lines
➚➚ Rising uncertainty regarding the emerging AI-world
Possible widening of the range of response,

Continue reading Signal: The Pentagon Researches Artificial Intelligence Systems for Nuclear Missile Launch Anticipation

The April and May 2018 Chinese successful deep sea explorations in the South China Sea lead to novel future possibilities, including a rising uncertainty in the security and resource sectors for all actors, states and companies alike, involving a complete redrawing of the influence map, of the capabilities needed and relatedly of the strategies and policies to develop and implement.

In this article, we shall focus on the strategic meaning of the rapid integration of artificial intelligence (AI) by the Chinese military, at the level of command and management of warfare operations.
In the first article of this series, we saw how the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is working to integrate AI to numerous weapons systems thus developing its “AI (fire) power”. … Continue reading Militarizing Artificial Intelligence – China (2)

For this strategic foresight and warning series focused on the future of Iran notably as a regional player, within the next three to five years, we shall start analysing Iran’s history and political institutions and then we shall investigate Iran’s relations with leading regional and global powers.

On 7 March 7 2017, Lieutenant General Liu Guozhi of the Science and Technology Commission of the Central Military Commission stated that “Artificial intelligence … will bring about fundamental changes, and even lead to a profound military revolution.” (Wang Liang et al., “NPC deputy Liu Guozhi: Artificial intelligence will accelerate the process of military transformation“,  … Continue reading Militarizing Artificial Intelligence – China (1)

Impacts and Consequences

  • Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the global U.S. influence and power lowered;
  • Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the regional (Middle East) U.S. influence and power lowered.

Should China step in successfully as peace broker between Israelis and Palestinians

  • Increased likelihood to see global perception of a new Chinese regional (Middle East) influence
  • Increased likelihood to see global perception of a rising Chinese global influence
  • Increased likelihood to see rising tensions between the U.S.

Continue reading Signals: Jerusalem – The U.S. Defeated at the U.N., China Seeks Advantage?

Impacts and Consequences

If the planned center truly becomes operational and efficient, which cannot be estimated with confidence currently considering unknowns,

  • Increased likelihood to mitigate spillover from the Libyan conflict

Facts and analysis

Related

Continue reading Signal: Libya and Italy Increase Efforts to Combat Migrant Smuggling

On 6 December 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump declared that the U.S. recognises Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and, as a result will move its embassy there (see sources below), while also reasserting commitment to the peace process and specifying that the U.S. would support a two-state solution, if approved by both the Israelis and the Palestinians. … Continue reading Signal: U.S. President Trump’s Statement on Jerusalem