War

Our Foresights and Insights

War is a game-changer. It brings pain, destruction and death. It profoundly impacts the collective identity of societies and nations. It changes societies in ways that would have been unthinkable before. It creates new political forms. It changes strategy and tactics. It generates and spreads scientific discoveries that deeply affects geopolitics, the art of war and societies. It changes the balance of power, redraws maps and upsets geopolitics and status quo.

For this strategic foresight and warning series focused on the future of Iran notably as a regional player, within the next three to five years, we shall start analysing Iran’s history and political institutions and then we shall investigate Iran’s relations with leading regional and global powers.

On 7 March 7 2017, Lieutenant General Liu Guozhi of the Science and Technology Commission of the Central Military Commission stated that “Artificial intelligence … will bring about fundamental changes, and even lead to a profound military revolution.” (Wang Liang et al., “NPC deputy Liu Guozhi: Artificial intelligence will accelerate the process of military transformation“,  … Continue reading Militarizing Artificial Intelligence – China (1)

Impacts and Consequences

  • Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the global U.S. influence and power lowered;
  • Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the regional (Middle East) U.S. influence and power lowered.

Should China step in successfully as peace broker between Israelis and Palestinians

  • Increased likelihood to see global perception of a new Chinese regional (Middle East) influence
  • Increased likelihood to see global perception of a rising Chinese global influence
  • Increased likelihood to see rising tensions between the U.S.

Continue reading Signals: Jerusalem – The U.S. Defeated at the U.N., China Seeks Advantage?

Impacts and Consequences

If the planned center truly becomes operational and efficient, which cannot be estimated with confidence currently considering unknowns,

  • Increased likelihood to mitigate spillover from the Libyan conflict

Facts and analysis

Related

Continue reading Signal: Libya and Italy Increase Efforts to Combat Migrant Smuggling

On 6 December 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump declared that the U.S. recognises Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and, as a result will move its embassy there (see sources below), while also reasserting commitment to the peace process and specifying that the U.S. would support a two-state solution, if approved by both the Israelis and the Palestinians. … Continue reading Signal: U.S. President Trump’s Statement on Jerusalem

Nato has released its latest 2017 Strategic Foresight Analysis Report.
According to General Denis Mercier, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT) interviewed by Reuters, the report will be used with a SACT “companion report that maps out what NATO should do to respond to these trends in the spring” … “to inform the 2019 NATO political guidance”. … Continue reading Signal: Latest NATO 2017 Strategic Foresight Analysis Report

Impacts and Consequences

If Russia succeeds in gathering major actors in a congress in Sochi, which we estimate as likely (55% to 70%)

  • Increased likelihood to see, at the end of the process, a constructive peace settling in Syria
  • Increased likelihood to see the birth of a Federal Syria
  • Increased likelihood to see the survival of the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria
  • Increased likelihood to see a serious lowering of tensions in the Middle East and even some kind of stabilisation
  • Increased Russian influence

(Nota: The symbolic board has been moved to the end of the analysis and before the sources/signals)

Facts and analysis

As stated by Russian President Putin, … Continue reading Signals: A Russian-backed Congress in Sochi for Future Peace in Syria?

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

? Degree of influence of Russia on Turkey compared with Turkey’s perception of threat related to a Kurdish polity on its southern flank (near future critical uncertainty)
?

Continue reading Signal: Russia’s Putin Hosts Syria’s Assad for Working Meeting on Future Syria at Peace

A new state of play is emerging in the Middle East, which redraws the regional web of influence, following the military victory over the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and the concurrent and related negotiations for the end of the war in Syria. At the global level, the current jockeying taking place in the Middle East and its result will also have consequences as it impacts perceptions of global players, as well as influence and thus capability. On 16 November, three major diplomatic events centred around Saudi Arabia and Iran’s influence and involving China and Israel took place which impacted this state of play.

Impact on Issues

/ ➄ Hindrance to effective peace talks / Continued war in Libya

Recent statements by the elders of the Warfalla tribe highlight an underlying challenge to Libyan peace talks—tribalism. Under the umbrellas of the rival Libyan governments lie a host of tribes that are simultaneously competing for influence and power. … Continue reading Signal: Libya’s Largest Tribe Poses Challenge for a Peaceful Solution