Libya

Our Foresights and Insights

Impact on Issues

/ ➄ Failed peace talks / Continued war in Libya

On Monday 16 October 2017 evening, the Council of Representatives (COR) dialogue committee suspended its participation in the Tunisia-hosted peace negotiations with the Government of National Accord (GNA).
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According to the official statement and members of the COR’s committee, … Continue reading Signal: Libya’s Council of Representatives Dialogue Committee Abandons Peace Negotiations

Having evaluated the likelihood for each scenario for the future of Libya (see detail here), we shall now present updated likelihoods that account for changes that have taken place since we began the evaluations. Because both intervention and spillover are already undoubtedly occurring in Libya, our scenarios are now considered sub-scenarios of Scenario 2: Intervention and spillover instead of independent scenarios.   … Continue reading Final Scenario for the Future of Libya and their Likelihoods

Impact on Issues

➘➙ ➃/➄ The Islamic State at War /Libya

The war waged by the Islamic State goes on…  and the situation in Libya is not yet pacified. Both the war in Libya and the activity of the Islamic State (and al-Qaeda) must continue being monitored. … Continue reading Signal: U.S. air strikes kill IS fighters in Libya

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In this article, however unlikely it would appear currently*, we shall assess the likelihood of a lasting victory by the Salafists — in other words, the ability of Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State to not only achieve victory, but also to maintain lasting control. By victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries,Continue reading Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya – A Lasting Salafist Victory

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In this article, we shall assess the likelihood of a total victory in Libya in the medium term by al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. By victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers. In the previous article, we evaluated the likelihood for the lasting victory of each government, … Continue reading Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya – A Salafist Victory?

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In this article, we shall assess the likelihood of a lasting victory by the GNC, GNA, and COR—in other words, the ability of each government to not only achieve victory, but also to maintain lasting control. By victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers. … Continue reading Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya – Scenarios of Victories (2)

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In this article, we shall assess the likelihood of a total victory by the GNC, GNA, and COR. By total victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers. In the previous article, we evaluated the likelihood for various spillover scenarios occurring both in the event of partition and without partition. … Continue reading Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya – Scenarios of Victories (1)

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As we discussed in the previous article, intervention and spillover are already occurring—thus we determined the likelihood of three partition scenarios occurring in the midst of intervention and spillover was highly unlikely. In this article, we shall discuss the organization, indicators, and likelihood of the various spillover scenarios occurring both in the event of partition and without partition. … Continue reading Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya – Scenario 2 Increased Spillover and Partition

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We shall now discuss the organization, indicators, and likelihood of the various partition scenarios, after having detailed the indicators and determined the likelihood for intervention in the last article.
Note: In the following article, we shall use the acronym COR for the Council of Representatives (nationalists), GNC for the General National Congress (Islamists),Continue reading Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya – Scenario 2 Partition

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Having organized the scenarios and detailed the general methodology for Scenario 2 in the last article, we shall now discuss the indicators for intervention and determine the likelihood of intervention occurring for the General National Congress (GNC), Council of Representatives (COR), and Government of National Accord (GNA), as well as see how the general case envisioned previously needs to be amended to reflect the reality on the ground as interventions have started. … Continue reading Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya – Scenario 2 Intervention

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