Syria

Our Foresights and Insights

Impacts and Consequences

  • Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the global U.S. influence and power lowered;
  • Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the regional (Middle East) U.S. influence and power lowered.

Should China step in successfully as peace broker between Israelis and Palestinians

  • Increased likelihood to see global perception of a new Chinese regional (Middle East) influence
  • Increased likelihood to see global perception of a rising Chinese global influence
  • Increased likelihood to see rising tensions between the U.S.

Continue reading Signals: Jerusalem – The U.S. Defeated at the U.N., China Seeks Advantage?

On 6 December 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump declared that the U.S. recognises Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and, as a result will move its embassy there (see sources below), while also reasserting commitment to the peace process and specifying that the U.S. would support a two-state solution, if approved by both the Israelis and the Palestinians. … Continue reading Signal: U.S. President Trump’s Statement on Jerusalem

Impacts and Consequences

If Russia succeeds in gathering major actors in a congress in Sochi, which we estimate as likely (55% to 70%)

  • Increased likelihood to see, at the end of the process, a constructive peace settling in Syria
  • Increased likelihood to see the birth of a Federal Syria
  • Increased likelihood to see the survival of the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria
  • Increased likelihood to see a serious lowering of tensions in the Middle East and even some kind of stabilisation
  • Increased Russian influence

(Nota: The symbolic board has been moved to the end of the analysis and before the sources/signals)

Facts and analysis

As stated by Russian President Putin, … Continue reading Signals: A Russian-backed Congress in Sochi for Future Peace in Syria?

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

? Degree of influence of Russia on Turkey compared with Turkey’s perception of threat related to a Kurdish polity on its southern flank (near future critical uncertainty)
?

Continue reading Signal: Russia’s Putin Hosts Syria’s Assad for Working Meeting on Future Syria at Peace

A new state of play is emerging in the Middle East, which redraws the regional web of influence, following the military victory over the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and the concurrent and related negotiations for the end of the war in Syria. At the global level, the current jockeying taking place in the Middle East and its result will also have consequences as it impacts perceptions of global players, as well as influence and thus capability. On 16 November, three major diplomatic events centred around Saudi Arabia and Iran’s influence and involving China and Israel took place which impacted this state of play.

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

? Unity of Arab States, willingness and capability to support Saudi Arabia, willingness and capability to counter growing Iranian influence, (critical uncertainties)
 ( conflict in Yemen) Saudi perception of Iranian expansion and resulting threat
➙ ?

Continue reading Signals: Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel…

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

➚ ➃  Reinforced jihadist front in Western Egypt
  Challenges to Egypt as it is squeezed between the Sinai and Western fronts
  Survival of the Islamic State
  Islamic State resurgence in the MENA region,

Continue reading Signal: Al Qaeda / Islamic State New Front In Western Egypt?

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ➚ ? ➃  Short term – Willingness of Iraq to capitalize further on their military victory against the Kurds, notably capturing Kurdish oilfields (uncertainty) ➘ ? Medium to longer term – capacity of Iraq to govern legitimately over its multi-sectarian multi-ethnic population (critical uncertainty) ➚ ➃  /➄ Iraq strength and international support ➘ ➂ Legitimacy of … Continue reading Signal: Still no Agreement – Iraqis Forces and Peshmergas

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Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

? Degree of influence of Russia – and now possibly Iran – on Turkey compared with Turkey’s perception of threat related to a Kurdish polity on its southern flank (critical uncertainty)
➚➚  Turkey’s perception of threat
➚➚ to  Survival of the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria
➚➚ to ➂ Constructive peace for Syria
  to  Middle East Tension
Iran influence
➚➚  Russia influence
 Threat to Israel
➚➚ ➃ U.S.

Continue reading Signals: Russia, Iran, Turkey – A Syrian Strategic Triangle

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

? Degree of influence of Russia on Turkey compared with Turkey’s perception of threat related to a Kurdish polity on its southern flank (critical uncertainty)
 to  Survival of the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria
➚ ➃ Russia influence trial

As the seventh round of Astana talks proceeds (30 Oct-31 Oct 2017), … Continue reading Signal: Russia to Support Deeper Involvement of Kurds in Post-War Syria