Creating your Analytical Model – Training Course

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Creating your Analytical Model for Strategic Foresight and Warning, Risk Management and Scenario-building
Practically develop and enhance, step by step, your anticipatory analytical skills to tackle complex geopolitical, domestic and global contemporary issues, in a way that can be used with and by most strategic foresight and warning or anticipatory methodologies. Notably learn to properly map an issue for strategic foresight, early warning and risk management.
Module 1The mission of the SF&W analyst and officer
This module explains what is anticipation of national and international security issues or political and geopolitical problems and why it matters for public but also corporate actors. It underlines the main aims that analysts and officers seek to attain, and spells out major challenges. It presents the overall process and methodology for strategic foresight and warning or risk analysis.
Unit 1Why and How Do we Anticipate?
Unit 2Strategic Foresight and Warning and the Analyst-Officer Mission
Module 2The fundamentals of an analysis
This module will first deal with biases, which are so challenging for analysis. It is thus crucial to understand biases before to begin tackling the practice of analysis, if we want to mitigate the way these unconscious mental errors can hinder analysis.It will not only deal with the well-known cognitive biases but address all types of biases. Each time a bias will be explained, ways to mitigate it or cope with it will be suggested. The module will then explain and "de-dramatize" models and underline their importance for analysis. It will introduce progressively the use of graphs and networks for analytical modeling.
Unit 1Opening up the “Mind-Forged Manacles” (1)
Unit 2Opening up the “Mind-Forged Manacles” (2)
Unit 3Opening up the “Mind-Forged Manacles” (3)
Unit 4Models, Graphs and Networks (1)
Unit 5Models, Graphs and Networks (2)
Module 3Software for Analysis
In this module you will be introduced to open source and free software products - yEd Graph and Gephi - which we shall use in the rest of the course. The advantages of using these software for anticipatory analysis will be underlined and followed by two tutorials, one per software product.
Unit 1Tutorial - Creating a Graph with yEd Graph
Unit 2Tutorial - Creating a Graph with Gephi
Module 4Building your graph: From Factors, Actors and Variables to the Construction of the Model
With this module you will build upon what you saw previously and use it to learn progressively to build a full graph or network for a national or international security issue, or risk, optimised for strategic foresight and warning, risk analysis, or more generally all anticipatory analysis. You will improve your skills at identifying the actors and factors that are crucial for analyzing geopolitical, global and national/domestic security issues, as well as transforming them in a way that allows for proper future-oriented analysis. Finally, this module will explain how to put everything together to obtain a model that is usable across needs.
Unit 1The Building Blocks of a Graph for National and International Security Issues
Unit 2Fundamentals of Dynamic Political Analysis
Unit 3From Factors and Actors to Variables
Unit 4Building the Graph (Double Unit)
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