Practically applying the idea of “strategic surprise” when anticipating new threats is difficult as soon as one moves away from the general idea, and tries to be more specific about the strategic impact a surprise could have. The surprise part of the concept is relatively easily understood and envisioned. When imagining a threat or danger occurring, we don’t have any problem identifying and explaining the many reasons why this event could happen unexpectedly and find us unprepared. Assessing, estimating and understanding these incriminated causes, then remedying them, is more complex, indeed the raison d’être of strategic foresight and warning and risk management, and the topic of many studies. The strategic dimension, for its part, is more elusive and far less […]

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A propos de l'auteur: Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Hélène Lavoix, PhD Lond (Relations internationales), est le directeur de The Red (Team) Analysis Society. Elle est spécialisée dans la prospective stratégique et l'alerte en matière de sécurité nationale et internationale. Elle se concentre actuellement sur l'intelligence artificielle, la science quantique et la sécurité. Elle enseigne au niveau Master à SciencesPo-PSIA.

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