Signal: dernier rapport d'analyse prospective de l'OTAN pour 2017

Nato has released its latest 2017 Strategic Foresight Analysis Report.

According to General Denis Mercier, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT) interviewed by Reuters, the report will be used with a SACT “companion report that maps out what NATO should do to respond to these trends in the spring” … “to inform the 2019 NATO political guidance”.

Some of the main points identified for the future are:

  • Increased instability
  • Increased likelihood of confrontation and war
  • Rising challenge to NATO and the West from emerging and resurgent powers (aka Russia and China)
  • Asymmetric demographic change
  • Rapid urbanization
  • Increasingly polarized societies
  • Continuous if not rising importance of new and emerging technologies, which offer enormous opportunities but also challenges and vulnerabilities
  • The impact of globalization
  • Rising importance of climate change and related cross cutting impacts, water security, food security and resource competition

Download pdf report from NATO

NATO sees growing Russia, China challenge; higher risk of war

BERLIN (Reuters) – China’s growing military strength and a resurgent Russia will pose growing challenges to the trans-Atlantic alliance in coming years, and NATO’s moves to bolster its capabilities could trigger a new Cold War-style arms race, a NATO report said.

A propos de l'auteur: Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Hélène Lavoix, PhD Lond (Relations internationales), est le directeur de The Red (Team) Analysis Society. Elle est spécialisée dans la prospective stratégique et l'alerte en matière de sécurité nationale et internationale. Elle se concentre actuellement sur l'intelligence artificielle, la science quantique et la sécurité. Elle enseigne au niveau Master à SciencesPo-PSIA.

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