Création de votre modèle analytique - Cours de formation

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Creating your Analytical Model for Strategic Foresight and Warning, Risk Management and Scenario-building
Practically develop and enhance, step by step, your anticipatory analytical skills to tackle complex geopolitical, domestic and global contemporary issues, in a way that can be used with and by most strategic foresight and warning or anticipatory methodologies. Notably learn to properly map an issue for strategic foresight, early warning and risk management.
Module 1La mission de l'analyste et officier SF & W
This module explains what is anticipation of national and international security issues or political and geopolitical problems and why it matters for public but also corporate actors. It underlines the main aims that analysts and officers seek to attain, and spells out major challenges. It presents the overall process and methodology for strategic foresight and warning or risk analysis.
Unité 1Pourquoi et comment anticipons-nous?
Unité 2Veille stratégique et alerte et mission analyste-officier
Module 2Les fondamentaux d'une analyse
This module will first deal with biases, which are so challenging for analysis. It is thus crucial to understand biases before to begin tackling the practice of analysis, if we want to mitigate the way these unconscious mental errors can hinder analysis.It will not only deal with the well-known cognitive biases but address all types of biases. Each time a bias will be explained, ways to mitigate it or cope with it will be suggested. The module will then explain and "de-dramatize" models and underline their importance for analysis. It will introduce progressively the use of graphs and networks for analytical modeling.
Unité 1Ouvrir les "menottes forgées par l'esprit" (1)
Unité 2Ouvrir les "menottes forgées par l'esprit" (2)
Unité 3Ouvrir les "menottes forgées par l'esprit" (3)
Unité 4Modèles, graphiques et réseaux (1)
Unité 5Modèles, graphiques et réseaux (2)
Module 3Logiciel d'analyse
In this module you will be introduced to open source and free software products - yEd Graph and Gephi - which we shall use in the rest of the course. The advantages of using these software for anticipatory analysis will be underlined and followed by two tutorials, one per software product.
Unité 1Tutoriel - Créer un graphe avec yEd Graph
Unité 2Tutoriel - Créer un graphique avec Gephi
Module 4Construire votre graphique: des facteurs, acteurs et variables à la construction du modèle
With this module you will build upon what you saw previously and use it to learn progressively to build a full graph or network for a national or international security issue, or risk, optimised for strategic foresight and warning, risk analysis, or more generally all anticipatory analysis. You will improve your skills at identifying the actors and factors that are crucial for analyzing geopolitical, global and national/domestic security issues, as well as transforming them in a way that allows for proper future-oriented analysis. Finally, this module will explain how to put everything together to obtain a model that is usable across needs.
Unité 1Les éléments constitutifs d'un graphique pour les problèmes de sécurité nationale et internationale
Unité 2Principes fondamentaux de l'analyse politique dynamique
Unité 3Des facteurs et des acteurs aux variables
Unité 4Construire le graphique (unité double)
Alimenté par Didacticiel WP