The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly - 5 janvier 2017

Chaque semaine, notre analyse recueille des signaux faibles - et moins faibles -… Chaque section traite des signaux liés à un thème spécifique: le monde (politique internationale et géopolitique); économie; science; analyse, stratégie et avenir; technologie et armes; énergie et environnement. Cependant, dans un monde complexe, les catégories ne sont qu'un moyen commode de présenter des informations, lorsque des faits et des événements […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly - 15 décembre 2016

Chaque semaine, notre analyse recueille des signaux faibles - et moins faibles -… Chaque section traite des signaux liés à un thème spécifique: le monde (politique internationale et géopolitique); économie; science; analyse, stratégie et avenir; technologie et armes; énergie et environnement. Cependant, dans un monde complexe, les catégories ne sont qu'un moyen commode de présenter des informations, lorsque des faits et des événements […]

L’État islamique et les attaques terroristes: le permis de tuer

As the Islamic State loses ground in Mesopotamia, in the west in Syria with the defeat in Palmyra (e.g. Adam Withnall The Independent, 27 March 2016), in the north with an increasingly large territory recaptured by the Kurds (e.g. Avi Asher-Schapiro, Vice News, 22 Dec 2015) and in the east in Iraq, first with the battle of Ramadi (“Battle of Ramadi (2015–16)“, Wikipedia) and now with the start of Iraqi “Operation Conquest” to free Mosul (Paul D. Shinkman, US News, 24 March 2016), it could be tempting to discard the Islamic State and its Khilafah as a bygone threat and a now inconsequential enemy  . If this string of victories against the Islamic State is definitely important and crucial in the war against the Khilafah, […]

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Un guide actualisé sur les psyops de l'État islamique

 last update: selected 10 videos… updated dates for all the latest issue of magazines, Amaq in Bengali, al-Bayan in Bengali. The defeated attack by the Islamic State on Ben Guerdane in Tunisia on 7 March 2016 probably indicated a worrying shift in tactics and strategy, which must be considered (e.g. Vanessa Szakal, “Mainstream Media on Ben Guerdane: victory and foreboding in Tunisia“, Nawaa, 11 March 2016). This attack may be seen as having been heralded by a significant call made by the Islamic State to the Islamic Maghreb through five psyops videos published over two days (19-20 January 2016). In parallel, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb started  to copycat the Islamic State’s type of videos (Andrea Spada, “Al-Qaeda tries to imitate Daesh in new threatening […]

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Psyops de recrutement de l'Etat islamique - Des Balkans à la France

Since we published our sub-series on the Islamic State psyops products and foreign fighters (The Foreign Fighters’ Threat; Attracting Foreign Fighters (1), 23 March 2015, and Foreign Fighters’ Complexes (2) 30 March 2015), new psyops products related to this theme have been released. Below is an update considering the new products, with implications in terms of geographical expansion and deepening of message for selected targeted audience. The list of the videos is given at the bottom of the post. It is all the more important to consider these new products and impacts that some complacency of a sort appears to be developing in North America – and potentially Europe? – regarding the Islamic State: one could, somehow, accommodate a potentially winning Islamic State (e.g. Ronald Tiersky, “ISIS Could […]

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Psyops de l'État islamique - Complexes de combattants étrangers (2)

After having seen the threats linked to the existence of foreign fighters within the Islamic State (The Foreign Fighters’ Threat), we focused on identifying the reasons why those foreign fighters would join the Islamic State, using the latter psyops products and locating them within the framework of existing findings (Attracting Foreign Fighters (1)). With that post, we presented the psyops “recruiting” products used for this study, then, taking stock of the research done on foreign fighters  by the International Center for the Study of Radicalisation  and Political Violence (ICSR) and by the Sufan Group, we focused on two core elements that are meant to be present for all recruited foreign fighters: a quest for meaning and purpose and a need for belonging. Using the Islamic State […]

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Psyops de l'État islamique - Attirer les combattants étrangers (1)

Après avoir rappelé les principaux risques liés à l’existence de combattants étrangers dans les rangs de l’État islamique et à leur nombre croissant (voir Les figures de l’État islamique - La menace des combattants étrangers), nous allons à présent nous tourner vers les raisons qui poussent les individus rejoindre l'État islamique. Dans le cadre des constatations existantes issues des recherches en cours, notamment du Centre international d'études pour la radicalisation et la violence politique (ICSR) et du Groupe Sufan, nous analyserons les produits psyops de l'État islamique et soulignerons les points spécifiques utilisés lors du recrutement. effort. En effet, l'augmentation de la mobilisation des combattants étrangers, comme souligné précédemment, impliquerait probablement que l'État islamique réussit relativement bien à recruter, de sorte qu'il en sait assez […]

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The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 195 - Attaque au musée en Tunisie, menace globale du djihad et indifférence publique?

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Read the 19 March scan →  World – The deadly attack on the Bardo museum in Tunisia, on 18 March, reminded the world that the Salafi-Jihadi threat is far from being overcome, despite some lassitude displayed by crowds and media over such attacks. One of the interesting signals to notice here, is the small number of crowdsourced articles referring to the attack. Only three articles found their way in The Weekly, when the casualties are far more important than those of the Charlie Hebdo attacks in Paris or of the shooting in Denmark, to say nothing of the impacts to Tunisia’s economy and more broadly polity, and in terms of spread of Jihadi attacks, threat […]

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Psyops de l'État islamique - La menace des combattants étrangers

One of the many issues that needs to be addressed regarding the Islamic State is that it attracts foreign fighters, as abundantly reported in the media. This issue is also one of the focuses of the latest issue of the Islamic State psyops product, Dabiq 7 (12 Feb 2015), as it features in five articles: “Major operations in Libya and Sinai” (foreign fighters from Tunisia and Sudan), pp. 40-41; “Among the believers are men: Abu Qudamah al-Misri” (foreign fighters from the UK), pp. 46-49; “A brief interview with Umm Basir al-Muhajirah” (foreign fighter from France), pp. 50-51; “The good example of Abu Basir al-Afriqi” (foreign fighter from France), pp. 68-71; “Interview with Abu Umar al-Baljiki” (foreign fighters from Belgium), pp. 72-75. This […]

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The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 192 - Nier l'islamisme de l'État islamique

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… We present below some of the most interesting or relevant features for each section. Read the 19 February scan →  World (all matters related to war, international and national security) – The focus this week stems from the White House Summit on Countering Violent Extremism currently held in Washington D.C. (see White House Fact sheet). First, in a very “Washingtonian” way, the summit leads to the publication of a host of reports and articles, as think tanks, newspapers, researchers, experts and pundits try to have their voices heard by policy-makers, some of them having been crowd-sourced here and worth checking and reading. Second, the summit forces the various actors to face an issue that […]

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