Multiplication de crises: surprises ou chocs stratégiques?

Au cours des deux dernières décennies, les surprises stratégiques se sont accumulées et accélérées plutôt que reculées, et elles continuent à le faire. Différents acteurs, des gouvernements et des organisations internationales au monde de l'entreprise en passant par les citoyens, semblent être constamment et de plus en plus surpris par des événements qu'ils ne peuvent anticiper, et donc pour lesquels ils ne sont pas préparés. Le printemps arabe (par exemple […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly (Tous les jours) du 209 au 25 juin 2015

Chaque semaine, notre analyse recueille des signaux faibles - et moins faibles -… Chaque section traite des signaux liés à un thème spécifique: le monde (politique internationale et géopolitique); économie; science; analyse, stratégie et avenir; technologie et armes; énergie et environnement. Cependant, dans un monde complexe, les catégories ne sont qu'un moyen pratique de présenter des informations, lorsque les faits et les […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 194 - Information, changement climatique et huitième cercle de l'enfer

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Read the 12 March scan →  Editor’s note: Although the piece below focuses on climate change, and worrying development accumulating over the past weeks, it is applicable to all sciences and more broadly to all analyses. It notably links perfectly well with the developing controversy and possibly wedge taking place between Germany on the one hand (and most probably a host of European countries), and, on the other, anti-Russian hawks notably in NATO and the U.S., regarding information on the civil war in Ukraine, and Russian military involvement there. This piece is also crucial in terms of SF&W monitoring and scanning. Meanwhile, it underlines how crucial it is to stretch thinking and not becoming so focused […]

Pour accéder à cet article, vous devez devenir l'un de nos membres. Log in si vous êtes membre.

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 193 - «Une folie dangereuse»

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Read the 5 March scan →  World – This week featured article is Seumas Milne’s “The demonisation of Russia risks paving the way for war” for The Guardian. Milne, by emphasising  how “Politicians and the media are using Vladimir Putin and Ukraine to justify military expansionism” and stressing how it is “a dangerous folly” – which we borrowed as title, perfectly summarises the tragic escalation towards war we are currently living. The anti-Russian sentiment has reached such a paroxysm, supported by analysts, who never use evidence, nor anymore footnotes to substantiate their claims or judgement, and mix good analysis with convenient ones, where inconvenient facts are forgotten, that any attempt to try coming back to better researched […]

Pour accéder à cet article, vous devez devenir l'un de nos membres. Log in si vous êtes membre.

La guerre en Libye et son avenir - Intervention internationale potentielle dans son contexte

The possibility of international intervention in Libya looks increasingly likely. Indeed, on 16 February, Egypt officially attacked the Islamic State component in Libya in retaliation against the murder there of twenty-one Egyptian Copts, again used by the Islamic State as yet another brutal psyops video, “A Message signed in Blood to the Nation of the Cross”, depicting their beheading (“Egypt launches air strikes against Islamic State in Libya“, Al Ahram, 16 February 2015; Karasik, “Black Flags over Libya show ISIS is on the warpath“, Al Arabyia News, 16 February 2015). Meanwhile, Italy closed down its embassy and its Defense Minister stated Italy’s readiness “to lead a coalition from Europe and north African states to battle against the advance of Jihadis in Libya”, because “The risk is […]

Pour accéder à cet article, vous devez devenir l'un de nos membres. Log in si vous êtes membre.

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 191 - Minsk et la probabilité de la guerre

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… We present below some of the most interesting or relevant features for each section. Read the 12 February scan →  World (all matters related to war, international and national security) – In terms of major issues, increasingly, one week looks very much like the next, as matters get entrenched. However, within each issue, problems emerge, evolve and sometimes coalesce. Joseph Nye, in his small but excellent book Understanding International Conflicts: An Introduction to Theory and History, wrote in a part aptly named The Funnel of Choices: “Events close in over time, degrees of freedom are lost and the probability of war increases. But the funnel of choices available to leaders might open up again, and degrees of freedom could […]

Pour accéder à cet article, vous devez devenir l'un de nos membres. Log in si vous êtes membre.

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 189 - Pourquoi une politique étrangère «occidentale» anti-russe?

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… We present below some of the most interesting or relevant features for each section. World (all matters related to war, international and national security) – With the return of war to Eastern Ukraine, we are witnessing an interesting effort by some authors to try to make sense of a US-led foreign policy and analysis of the world that does not appear to make sense to them, besides, of course, the host of usual anti-Russian articles. The articles in The American Interest  (“Putin’s World: In It To Win It” by Walter Russell Mead) and Salon (“Distortions, lies and omissions: The New York Times won’t tell you the real story behind Ukraine, Russian economic collapse” by Patrick […]

Pour accéder à cet article, vous devez devenir l'un de nos membres. Log in si vous êtes membre.

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 188 - Au-delà de la mentalité de positivité, de l'État islamique et d'une carte

Dernière mise à jour 26 janvier 2016 Vous trouverez ici les dernières cartes mises à jour pour l'État islamique et son Khilafah, ainsi que pour la Mésopotamie (Irak et Syrie) et pour sa portée mondiale. Le texte ci-dessous reste en grande partie vrai, avec des variantes bien sûr, notamment parce que la conscience du danger créé par l'État islamique s'est soudainement accrue après les attentats de […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 181 - Le «problème ukrainien» de l'Occident

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… We present below some of the most interesting or relevant features for each section. World (all matters related to war, international and national security) – An excellent article by Prof Anatol Lieven for BBC News on “How can the West solve its Ukraine problem?” addresses – at long last – most problems related to the Ukrainian crisis in a masterful, objective and constructive way, not shying away from the very difficult situation into which Ukraine now is.  The fact it is published by BBC News is positive and might signal that we could enter a healthier period regarding the way the crisis in Ukraine is handled. In turn it might give more hope to see the crisis […]

Pour accéder à cet article, vous devez devenir l'un de nos membres. Log in si vous êtes membre.

Conflit en Ukraine - L'extrême droite (3): partis et bataillons

After we focused, in our series on the far-right in Ukraine, first on ultra-nationalism then on the new People’s Front ultra-nationalist outlook and related potential impacts, notably regarding war in Eastern Ukraine, this last post will deal with the remaining far-right groups. We shall first look at the way the war in Eastern Ukraine further legitimized not only far-right and nationalist groups but also their paramilitary branches. Then, after presenting a map of the ultra-nationalist and far-right actors on the Ukrainian scene, we shall introduce more in detail those right-wing groups that are both represented in parliament and certified by their participation in the war, before to turn to those that have no parliamentary representation but nevertheless remain legitimized by the war. Legitimizing paramilitary right-wing groups The […]

Cartographie des acteurs d'extrême droite en Ukraine - Contenu Premium pour les membres Platinum (adhésion annuelle)

Pour accéder à cet article, vous devez devenir l'un de nos membres. Le texte de l'article (2873 mots - 9 pages - est entièrement disponible pour tous les membres).
Log in si vous êtes membre.

FR
EN FR