Comment lire une grande quantité d'informations et lutter contre les fausses nouvelles

La quantité incroyable et croissante d'informations disponibles de nos jours nous pose des défis spécifiques à relever. Pendant ce temps, la redécouverte de la propagande et le pouvoir des rumeurs diffusées sur les réseaux sociaux, désormais qualifiés de "fausses informations", ne font qu'accentuer la nécessité de nous frayer un chemin à travers la masse d'informations disponibles. C'est même […]

Prospective stratégique, alerte, risque et renseignement: textes et documents

Vous trouverez ci-dessous des documents publics et des produits liés à la prospective stratégique, aux alertes, à l'analyse de risque et au renseignement, publiés par des acteurs étatiques et privés - en construction.

Évaluer les probabilités pour l'avenir de la Libye - Une victoire salafiste?

In this article, we shall assess the likelihood of a total victory in Libya in the medium term by al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. By victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers. In the previous article, we evaluated the likelihood for the lasting victory of each government, finding that a COR victory was least unlikely. Now that intervention is already occurring, as we saw in our article on intervention scenarios, the “Salafist Victory” scenarios are considered sub-scenarios of Scenario 2: Intervention instead of independent scenarios. As such, this will be reflected in the indicators, mapping and likelihoods. Indeed, as events unfolded and intervention took […]

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Vers une guerre renouvelée en Syrie? Les Kurdes et la Turquie

«Le monde entier devrait savoir que nous ne permettrons jamais la création d'un État terroriste à travers nos frontières dans le nord de la Syrie. … Nous continuerons à écraser la tête des serpents dans leurs nids. Voici mon message à ceux qui veulent bloquer les mesures que nous prendrons pour la survie de notre […]

Évaluation des probabilités pour l'avenir de la Libye - Scénarios de victoires (2)

In this article, we shall assess the likelihood of a lasting victory by the GNC, GNA, and COR—in other words, the ability of each government to not only achieve victory, but also to maintain lasting control. By victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers. In the previous article, we evaluated the likelihood for the initial victory of each government, finding that a COR victory was least unlikely. Now that intervention is already occurring, as we saw in our article on intervention scenarios, the “Total Victory” scenarios are considered sub-scenarios of Scenario 2: Intervention instead of independent scenarios. As such, this will be reflected in […]

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Évaluation des probabilités pour l'avenir de la Libye - Scénarios de victoires (1)

In this article, we shall assess the likelihood of a total victory by the GNC, GNA, and COR. By total victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers. In the previous article, we evaluated the likelihood for various spillover scenarios occurring both in the event of partition and without partition. Now that intervention is already occurring, as we saw in our article on intervention scenarios, the “Total Victory” scenarios are considered sub-scenarios of Scenario 2: Intervention instead of independent scenarios. As such, this will be reflected in the indicators, mapping and likelihoods. Indeed, as events unfolded and intervention took place scenarios 3, which were about […]

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Évaluation des probabilités pour la Libye - Scénario 2 Augmentation des débordements et de la partition

As we discussed in the previous article, intervention and spillover are already occurring—thus we determined the likelihood of three partition scenarios occurring in the midst of intervention and spillover was highly unlikely. In this article, we shall discuss the organization, indicators, and likelihood of the various spillover scenarios occurring both in the event of partition and without partition. When discussing the potential directions of spillover, north refers to Europe; east refers to Egypt; south refers to Niger and Chad; and west refers to Algeria and Tunisia. Note: In the following article, we shall use the acronym COR for the Council of Representatives (nationalists), GNC for the General National Congress (Islamists), and GNA for the UN-backed Government of National Accord (unity […]

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La bataille de Raqqa, les Kurdes et la Turquie

Cet article porte sur l'évolution des rapports de forces sur le champ de bataille, notamment pour les Kurdes, principalement en Syrie, mais aussi en Irak, une des multiples couches d'interactions à prendre en compte autour de la bataille de Raqqa contre l'État islamique. Il fait partie d'une série visant à déchiffrer la […]

Évaluation des probabilités pour la Libye - Scénario 2 Partition

We shall now discuss the organization, indicators, and likelihood of the various partition scenarios, after having detailed the indicators and determined the likelihood for intervention in the last article. Note: In the following article, we shall use the acronym COR for the Council of Representatives (nationalists), GNC for the General National Congress (Islamists), and GNA for the UN-backed Government of National Accord (unity government). Organizing the Scenarios and Indicators Considering that external actors are already intervening in Libya, as we saw previously, as well as the fact that surrounding countries are experiencing migrant, smuggling, and jihadist spillover from Libya’s civil war, we organized the parent scenarios to account for these certainties. The next branch of scenarios—which have not occurred yet—are […]

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Évaluation des probabilités pour la Libye - intervention du scénario 2

Having organized the scenarios and detailed the general methodology for Scenario 2 in the last article, we shall now discuss the indicators for intervention and determine the likelihood of intervention occurring for the General National Congress (GNC), Council of Representatives (COR), and Government of National Accord (GNA), as well as see how the general case envisioned previously needs to be amended to reflect the reality on the ground as interventions have started. The initial narratives for the intervention scenarios can be found here (scenarios 2(1) to 2(9)). Note: we shall use the acronym COR for the Council of Representatives (nationalists), GNC for the General National Congress (Islamists), and GNA for the UN-backed Government of National Accord (unity government). Scenarios trees for […]

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