Access or return to the Horizon Scanning Board

The arrows show if the signal (or the piece of information briefly analysed) indicates a strengthening or weakening of the trend, problem, issue.

Strengthening, Escalation
Still strong or high but no change in intensity
Still strong or high but decreasing intensity
Decreasing intensity towards medium intensity of issue

The figure gives the level of intensity of the issue, problem, or threat. We use the Heidelberg University Conflict Barometer Intensity of conflict typology.

➀ dispute
➁ non-violent crisis
➂ violent crisis
➃ limited war
➄ war

It is coupled with typical colours for enhanced information, from green for dispute to bright red for war:  ➀ ➂