Portal to Strategic Analysis for Ukraine

war in Ukraine, strategic foresight and warning, Red (Team) AnalysisThe crisis in Ukraine, which started in November 2013, rapidly became a war. This page is an evolving table of content for our ongoing strategic foresight and warning analysis of crisis, conflict and war in Ukraine.

Our twin aim is to provide, first, in-depth Strategic Foresight & Warning analysis on the war in Ukraine, starting with identifying and presenting the actors, and second a methodological reflection on the challenges met during the analysis and ways forward to solve them, which should be useful for all complex crises.

As a brief introduction, the war in Ukraine is a complex war, in as much as it encompasses various multi-dimensional phenomena, classical ones but also novel or relatively surprising ones, compared with what was generally thought of as possible or probable for the future. In terms of Strategic Foresight and Warning methodology, the war in Ukraine is definitely a challenge in various ways. Notably, the conflict being young, the situation is quite fluid and we thus need in the same time to conduct a proper analysis for foresight and warning, while keeping abreast of rapidly evolving developments. Then, there is a high international involvement as well as polarization which makes it difficult to study the situation objectively. Finally, the potential impacts are important, multi-dimensional and far-reaching, but may actualize on very different timeframes (see section below “International environment and world order”).

State of Play – The actors

Setting the stage

International environment and world order

Methodology and initial analysis of actors and factors

Image from Military Maps: Crowdsourced Map for 27 June  – The application Military Maps was developed on the Russian social network Vkontakte (read “Crowdsourcing Ukraine’s Rebellion“, Global Voices, 4 May 2014). The app on VK coud initially be accessed here (no need to login), and the page of the group here. The map on Ukraine has now (20 June) moved to FB and can be accessed here. The page of Military Maps can be found here.

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