Leviathan, scenario, future, nation-state, modern-state

Portal to the Chronicles of Everstate: a practical example of scenario analysis

The Chronicles of Everstate (see below for the table of content) serve a quadruple purpose.

  • First they explore the futures of the modern nation-state over the next twenty years as presented in the Chronicles of Everstate: foreseeing the future of the modern nation-state, where the importance of the issue for everyone is also explained.
  • Second, and in a related way, they help illustrate the various political dynamics that are at work currently and how they could evolve or on the contrary persist in the future. Further analysis regarding the potential evolution of the nation-state can be accessed here.
  • Third, they are an example of a detailed scenario analysis and how it could use the web to reach its audience. Besides usual posts, Red (team) Analysis has published a new part of the Chronicles of Everstate, a fictional state created to imagine and tell the story of potential futures for the governance of our – very real – states or countries. When first published, the new post was displayed on the home page, then became accessible through the menu or portal to “The Chronicles of Everstate,” as shown on the navigating map. The foresight methodology applied is explained in the section “Analyse.” The software Gephi was used to create the dynamic graph and then throughout the whole foresight analysis. In the meantime various visual tools and designs will be tested to enhance the delivery.
  • Finally, by adopting an imaginary time, Evertime, yet using time lapses or durations that should be similar to what we experiment in real life, as real events unfold, the Chronicles should give us first elements to start testing and improving our understanding of time. It should help documenting if we were too short or too long in our estimations, if this or that dynamics are longer term than expected, etc.

Table of Content

Section I: Creating and Navigating the Chronicles of Everstate

Garden creation

Section II: The Futures of Everstate


How it all started: Everstate in 2012 EVT 

Garden 2

During the year, we are faced with a critical juncture point and three possible scenarios evolve from there.

Scenario 1: Mamominarch – Off with the State

Mamominarch

mamominarch hell

Scenario 2: Panglossy – Same Old, Same Old

Panglossy

 Bibliography on nations, governance and the modern state

Featured image: Detail of the frontispiece of the book Leviathan by Thomas Hobbes via Wikimedia Commons.

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