Portal to the Chronicles of Everstate: Exploring the Future of the Nation-State

The Chronicles of Everstate are scenarios for a fictional state created to imagine and tell the story of the potential futures for our – very real – states or countries.

They explain the political dynamics at work in polities. They lay the groundwork to explore the futures of the modern nation-state over the next twenty years as explained in the introductory article Foreseeing the Future of the Modern Nation-State: the Chronicles of Everstate. Finally, they address methodological challenges and issues.

Table of Content

Section 1: Setting the Stage

• Creating Everstate (Open Access)
• Everstate’s characteristics (Open Access)
• Creating Evertime (Open Access)
• Everstate: Setting the stage (I) (Open Access)
• Everstate: Setting the stage (II) (Open Access)
• Tragic Events: Testing Scenarios (Premium)
• The Chronicles of Everstate: the Actors (Premium)

Section 2: The Futures of Everstate

All the narratives below are premium articles (members-only).

How it all started:

• 2012 EVT: Rising Discontent
• 2012 EVT: Seeking Security
• 2012 EVT: Budget Deficit and Liquidity
• 2012 EVT: Public Resources and Lenders
• 2012 EVT: the Power of Novstate
• 2012 EVT: Ideological Stakes in an Outdated Worldview
• 2012 EVT: Material Stakes in an Outdated Worldview

During the year, Everstate is notably faced with a critical juncture point and three possible scenarios evolve from there.

Scenario 1: Mamominarch – Off with the State

• 2012 EVT – Scenario 1 – Mamominarch: Off with the State
• 2012-2013 EVT – Implementing the Mamominarch conclusions
• 2013 – 2018 EVT – A Current Account Surplus? Think again!
• 2013 – 2018 EVT – Shrinking the Income of the Nation
• 2013 – 2018 EVT – Involution

• 2018 – 2023 EVT – Complex Catastrophes
• 2018 – 2023 EVT – From Grievances to Political Mobilisation
• 2018 – 2023 EVT – Escalation
• 2018 – 2023 EVT – A Polity in Shambles

Scenario 2: Panglossy – Same Old, Same Old

• 2012 EVT – Scenario 2 – Panglossy: Same Old, Same Old
• 2012 EVT – New Government, New Opposition, Last Hope
• 2012-2013 EVT – Restoring Growth
• 2013 – 2018 EVT – Increasing wages: not enough, too late?
• 2013 – 2018 EVT – Investing for Green Growth without Liquidity (I)
• 2013 – 2018 EVT – Investing for Green Growth without Liquidity (2)
• 2013 – 2018 EVT – Green Growth in Action
• 2013 – 2018 EVT – Novstate-Air: Fighting Air Pollution for Profit
• 2013 – 2018 EVT – Unforeseen Outrage: Privatising the Commons
• 2013 – 2018 EVT – Learning from Water Privatization?
• To be continued

Bibliography on nations, governance and the modern state (Open Access)

Notes

• The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 29 April 2021
• Strategic Foresight, Warning and Intelligence Products and Documents
• The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 22 April 2021
• The Chinese Fishing Fleet, Influence and Hunger Wars
• The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 15 April 2021
• Why the Messenger Got Shot and how to Avoid this Fate

We are republishing the whole Chronicles of Everstate considering their relevance to the second decade of the twenty-first century. This very pertinence shows the validity of our methodology and approach. Given proper resources, SF&W or risk management products are an investment for actors that can help them steer their strategies and policies not only on the very short term but also over a long time.
The mapping for the Chronicles of Everstate was developed throughout 2010 and 2011. The scenarios were written between June 2011 and July 2012. For the scenarios themselves, the re-publishing process will only update the form and the technical part, but not the content, to allow for lessons learned.

Featured image: Detail of the frontispiece of the book Leviathan by Thomas Hobbes via Wikimedia Commons.