In a nutshell, the Chronicles of Everstate, are scenarios for a fictional state created to imagine and tell the story of potential futures for the governance of our – very real – states or countries.

The Chronicles of Everstate (see below for the table of content) serve a quadruple purpose.

• First they explore the futures of the modern nation-state over the next twenty years as presented in the Chronicles of Everstate: foreseeing the future of the modern nation-state, where the importance of the issue is also explained.
• Second, and in a related way, they help illustrate the various political dynamics that are at work in the world and how they could evolve or not in the future. Further analysis regarding the potential evolution of the nation-state can be accessed here.
• Third, they are an experiment in an extremely detailed scenario analysis and narrative. The experiment has been used to improve the overall methodology used by the Red (Team) Analysis Society, notably testing the use of ego networks to develop a narrative. The foresight methodology applied then is explained in the section “Analyse.” The software Gephi was used to create the dynamic graph and then throughout the whole foresight analysis. In the meantime various visual tools and designs were tested to enhance the delivery.
• Finally, by adopting an imaginary time, Evertime, yet using time lapses or durations that should be similar to what we experiment in real life, as real events unfold, the Chronicles should give us first elements to start testing and improving our understanding of time. It should help documenting if we were too short or too long in our estimations, if this or that dynamics are longer term than expected, etc.

Table of Content

Section I: Creating and Navigating the Chronicles of Everstate

• Creating Everstate
• Everstate’s characteristics
• Creating Evertime
• Everstate: Setting the stage (I)
• Everstate: Setting the stage (II)
• Tragic Events: Testing Scenarios – see also how to present events with TimelineJS by VéritéCo
• The Chronicles of Everstate: the Actors

Section II: The Futures of Everstate

How it all started: Everstate in 2012 EVT 

• 2012 EVT: Rising Discontent (The Chronicles of Everstate)
• 2012 EVT: Seeking Security (The Chronicles of Everstate)
• 2012 EVT: Budget Deficit and Liquidity (The Chronicles of Everstate)
• 2012 EVT: Public Resources and Lenders (The Chronicles of Everstate)
• 2012 EVT: the Power of Novstate (The Chronicles of Everstate)
• 2012 EVT: Ideological Stakes in an Outdated Worldview (The Chronicles of Everstate)
• 2012 EVT: Material Stakes in an Outdated Worldview (The Chronicles of Everstate)

During the year, we are faced with a critical juncture point and three possible scenarios evolve from there.

Scenario 1: Mamominarch – Off with the State

• 2012 EVT – Scenario 1 – Mamominarch: Off with the State
• 2012-2013 EVT – Implementing the Mamominarch conclusions
• 2013 – 2018 EVT – A Current Account Surplus? Think again! (Mamominarch)
• 2013 – 2018 EVT – Shrinking the Income of the Nation (Mamominarch)
• 2013 – 2018 EVT – Involution (Mamominarch)
• 2018 – 2023 EVT – Complex Catastrophes (Mamominarch)

• 2018 – 2023 EVT – From Grievances to Political Mobilisation (Mamominarch)
• 2018 – 2023 EVT – Escalation (Mamominarch)
• 2018 – 2023 EVT – A Polity in Shambles (Mamominarch)

Scenario 2: Panglossy – Same Old, Same Old

• 2012 EVT – Scenario 2 – Panglossy: Same Old, Same Old
• 2012 EVT – New Government, New Opposition, Last Hope (Panglossy)
• 2012-2013 EVT – Restoring Growth (Panglossy)
• 2013 – 2018 EVT – Increasing wages: not enough, too late? (Panglossy)
• 2013 – 2018 EVT – Investing for Green Growth without Liquidity (I) (Panglossy)
• 2013 – 2018 EVT – Investing for Green Growth without Liquidity (2) (Panglossy)
• 2013 – 2018 EVT – Green Growth in Action (Panglossy)
• 2013 – 2018 EVT – Novstate-Air: Fighting Air Pollution for Profit (Panglossy)
• 2013 – 2018 EVT – Unforeseen Outrage: Privatising the Commons (Panglossy)
• 2013 – 2018 EVT – Learning from Water Privatization? (Panglossy)
• To be continued…

 Bibliography on nations, governance and the modern state

Featured image: Detail of the frontispiece of the book Leviathan by Thomas Hobbes via Wikimedia Commons.