We build scenarios that will allow you envisioning how the world will be at a (relatively) specific time in the future.

Rather than being faced with intractable uncertainty, you will thus clearly see the various possible changes ahead. As a result, you will be able to develop strategies and policies to be prepared for these coming changes. You will be able to act sooner rather than later.

All our scenarios and their indicators can be presented in French or English.

Considering your needs first

If you are worried about a specific political or geopolitical uncertainty

  • To make sure the scenarios fit your needs, we shall start by an in-depth discussion with you on your activity and this very uncertainty you have selected.
  • According to your needs, we shall develop tailor-made scenarios, with their set of indicators and their likelihoods.
  • We shall clearly explain what to do with the scenarios and their indicators.
  • If you desire so, we can accompany each scenario of response alternatives, as well as recommend alternative response tools.

Do not hesitate to contact us to inquire about scenarios and indicators.

If you are worried by the political and geopolitical situation in general and wonder what to do

  • We shall first recommend to establish through in-depth discussion with you a political and geopolitical uncertainty exposure diagnostic, to allow you selecting those political and geopolitical uncertainty for which you want to get prepared first.
  • We shall then develop tailor-made scenarios, with their set of indicators and their probabilities.
  • We shall clearly explain what to do with the scenarios and their indicators.
  • If you desire so, we can accompany each scenario of response alternatives, as well as recommend alternative response tools.

Do not hesitate to contact us to inquire about scenarios and indicators.

Specific features of our scenarios

  • Our scenarios aim at practically serving decision-makers. We make sure our scenarios are actionable and specific to the uniqueness of each of our clients.
  • Our scenarios are grounded in real political and geopolitical knowledge and understanding. We use the expertise of our specialists and, according to needs, we can bring in supplementary specific experts in sophisticated fields we can select because we are scientifically trained in politics and geopolitics.
  • Our scenario methodology considers and mitigates more than the most classical biases (thinking errors). We thus take into account cognitive biases such as, for example, the availability bias, i.e. to believe that events one may more easily imagine or remember are more likely to happen, but do not stop there. We also factor in emotions, ego or beliefs for example.
  • Our scenarios methodology uses a combination of
    • mapping and conceptual network
    • structural scenario-analysis/scenario-planning
    • early warning system (indicators and indications) as used by intelligence, civilian and military.

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Featured image: ALMA antennas under the Milky Way, Credit: ESO/José Francisco Salgado (josefrancisco.org)