Understanding the French Yellow Vest Movement and its Crescendo (1)

France faces an escalating protest movement. This movement is called the “Yellow Vests” or “Yellow Vest”. The French government appears to be always late in the way it answers it; political analysts appear to be surprised by what is happening and to struggle to understand. Meanwhile, violence increases. Part 2 of the article: Stabilising Or […]

Modeling for Dynamic Risks and Uncertainties (1) :
Mapping Risk and Uncertainty

(This article is a fully updated version of the original article published in November 2011 under the title “Creating a Foresight and Warning Model: Mapping a Dynamic Network (I)”). Mapping risk and uncertainty is the second step of a proper process to correctly anticipate and manage risks and uncertainties.  This stage starts with building a model, which, once completed, will describe and explain the issue or question at hand, while allowing for anticipation or foresight. In other words, with the end of the first step, you have selected a risk, an uncertainty, or a series of risks and uncertainties, or an issue of concern, with its proper time frame and scope, for example, what are the risks and uncertainties to […]

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The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No93, 28 March 2013

Horizon Scanning for National Security No93 – Are political authorities back? Many high-tech and cyber related signals emerged this week, from the massive DDoS attack to digital arm trade, right to kill hackers, DNA computing, quantum technology or space entrepreneurs, besides the possibility of renewed attacks by “climato-skeptics,” when scientists wonder if the frozen spring could be linked to a slower gulf stream, and when political impacts of natural catastrophes start being studies more consistently. Meanwhile, the Syrian quagmire deepens, progressively dragging the region in, and tensions in Northeast Asia heighten. And at the core…

Anonymous: a new political force?

Anonymous: a new political force? Anonymous, the Anonymous movement, idea or “Internet meme,” to use Wikipedia characterisation, has become an increasingly important actor on the global political scene, which cannot be ignored anymore. It is, however, rarely seen as a political actor, despite Anonymous’ evolution, as Al Jazeera’s excellent timeline makes quite clear, as Quinn Norton for Wired details […]

Creating a Foresight or Warning Model: Mapping a Dynamic Network (II)

Go back to Part 1

Actually, any SF&W model as it primarily deals with time should be a dynamic network. How can we expect obtaining any potential outline for the future if our model for understanding is static?

Our map thus aims at representing the potential dynamics of polities. We shall notably use Ertman’s work on past state-building, but making it adaptable to present and future conditions.

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A few thoughts regarding #OccupyWallStreet

A few thoughts regarding the #OccupyWallStreet movement, including the arrests in NYC on Saturday 24 September 2011, related effects on the treatment by media, and recent articles and blogs.

19 June 2011 #globalrevolution: Noise or Weak signal?

On 19 June, Take the Square, a web-platform relaying regional and national information on and calls from the various Real Democracy Now movements, is calling for the official start of a global peaceful revolution – shortened as twitter’s category as #globalrevolution – expressed through a worldwide demonstration. The Real Democracy Now movements, as has been […]