This article is the second of a two-parts of a series seeking to identify the impacts of the current and most probably forthcoming terrorist attacks by the Islamic State and other jihadist groups, and focuses on major socio-psychological consequences. It follows a first article, which started outlining a framework for impact assessment out of our current … Continue reading The Psychological Impact of the Islamic State Terrorist Attacks – Geopolitics, Uncertainties and Business (6)
This article identifies lessons we can learn from the impact of the conflict in Ukraine on businesses, as presented in the first part, to continue enhancing our understanding of the way businesses and the corporate world could usefully anticipate or foresee geopolitical and political risks and uncertainties. From the way to identify which crises and geopolitical uncertainties can … Continue reading Lessons from the Conflict in Ukraine – Geopolitics, Uncertainties and Business (4)
Over the last two decades, strategic surprises have accumulated and accelerated rather than receded, and they continue to do so. Various actors, from governments and international organisations to the corporate world through citizens seem to be constantly and increasingly surprised by events they fail to anticipate, and thus for which they are unprepared.
The Arab Spring (e.g. … Continue reading Multiplicating Crises: Strategic Surprises or Strategic Shocks?
Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Read the 12 March scan → Editor’s note: Although the piece below focuses on climate change, and worrying development accumulating over the past weeks, it is applicable to all sciences and more broadly to all analyses. It notably links perfectly well with the developing controversy and possibly wedge taking … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 194 – Information, Climate Change, and the Eighth Circle of Inferno
Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… We present below some of the most interesting or relevant features for each section. World (all matters related to war, international and national security) – This week was overwhelmingly dominated by three main issues, the horrendous burning alive of the Jordanian pilot by the Islamic State, its … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 190 – The Islamic State, Puppet Master of Emotions
Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… We present below some of the most interesting or relevant features for each section.
World (all matters related to war, international and national security) – Note a very interesting and excellent article, part of a “series on strategic communications, narrative, and the Islamic State” … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 178 – Fighting Wars of Narratives, from AQ to IS, Ukraine and Russia
Parliamentary election in Ukraine will be held on 26 October 2014. Meanwhile, the road towards full peace in Eastern Ukraine is still uncertain, despite the 5 September Minsk protocol and its 19 September memorandum (OSCE), witness, among others, the battles for Donetsk airport and latest fighting in Luhansk or near Mariupol (OSCE SMM reports). Furthermore, on … Continue reading Ultra-Nationalism and the Far Right in Ukraine (1): Victims and Heroes
The war in Syria has now become fully internationalized, after its expected regionalization, notably favoured by the failure to stabilize Iraq after its state was destroyed by the 2003 US-led Iraq war. The two, initially unrelated wars have morphed into a war against one of the fighting actors on the Syrian battlefield, the Islamic State, … Continue reading Monitoring the War against the Islamic State or against a Terrorist Group?
Editorial – Information Wars – Information or more broadly belief-based wars seem to multiply right now, relayed by many official declarations, articles and analyses, although fortunately not all. This is a worrying phenomenon because it leads to direct polarization (enhancing feelings of threat, fear, “all because of an evil other that must be fought”) and to inaccurate analyses, which in … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 157 – Information Wars
Editorial – The power of biases: This week strikingly underlines the power of biases and how much beliefs and wishful thinking may overtake our understanding and lead human actions, constraining among other the timeliness of ideas and policies. First, we have the sudden realization by Davos participants that yes, war between China and Japan is possible. … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 23 January 2014 – The power of biases