Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Each section focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present information, when facts and events interact … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 21 April 2016
Editorial – Si vis pacem para bellum (If you want peace prepare for war) and biases – The continuous escalation in East Asia is worrying to say the least. We have increasingly stronger signals pointing towards the possibility of war, including considering Japan’s challenging domestic situation. Windows of opportunities to de-escalate are most likely to open too in … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No128, 28 November 2013
Horizon Scanning for National Security No83: Towards a multiplication of increasingly fragile states? This is what could mean the report on the state of infrastructures in the U.S. (and probably other so called rich countries?). It is a crucial weak signal that could trump all others: imagine weak, increasingly fragile “rich countries” on the backdrop of all the other tensions and threats…
No34, 9th February 2012
Not if but when? It looks like the small window of opportunity that was trying hard to open regarding Iran is closing, while weak signals are a warning of a revival of the global crisis throughout all countries, with China still cast as potential winner.
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No33, 2nd February 2012
Convergence? As an opportunity to see tension appeased with Iran, although not shared by all, appears, as beliefs in financial and economic recovery emerge, convergence of heavy threats could also take place in the background, with now a heavy cyber-security component in terms of ways and means.
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No32, 26th January 2012
Domestic and international tensions are increasingly entwined in a pattern that is not likely to recede soon. Positively, an effort has started to tackle our very outdated models. Meanwhile our chessboard and the frontiers of plausibility are being redrawn to include space and cloaking.
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A few thoughts regarding the #OccupyWallStreet movement, including the arrests in NYC on Saturday 24 September 2011, related effects on the treatment by media, and recent articles and blogs.