The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No77, 6 December 2012

As expected last week the situation in Egypt did not stabilize and many other issues escalate. Also, of particular interest this week as weak signal, we find the importance of religion in times of hardship, when all hopes seem to be lost. Considering the power of mobilisation and radicalisation of religion, this factor is to be kept in mind.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No76, 29 November 2012

No76 – 29 November 2012 Many signals with potential crucial strategic impacts, and among them, Egyptian President Morsi and his decree granting him absolute powers, continuing, rising discontent in Europe, and the BRIC’S move on the global financial chessboard. Click on image to read on Paper.li or scroll down to access current issue below.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No74, 15 November 2012

No74 – 15 November 2012 Patterns, battles and conflicts, ongoing, escalating or to come, emerge as articles are read in clusters, as a system: e.g. US as top oil producer with Peak oil theorists disagreeing, the battle for the Arctic, Chinese Energy thinking and 6C increase in temperatures. Click on image to read on Paper.li […]

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No73, 8 November 2012

No73 – 8 November 2012 Click on image to read on Paper.li or scroll down to access current issue below.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No72, 1 November 2012

No72 – 1 November 2012 Some weak signals towards a change of paradigm, besides the usual tense hotspots and their aftermaths – which do contribute to the change of paradigm. Maybe an opening window of opportunity that might ease the escalation Israel-Iran… “maybe” because, there, signals are contradicting. Click on image to read on Paper.li […]

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No71, 25 October 2012

No71 – 25 October 2012 Four main themes or meta issues today, none of them surprising, but all of them showing rising tensions and further problems: China… and Japan; Near-East/Middle-East; Europe’s crisis, Environmental changes and energy. To these add a few interesting developments in terms of capabilities and technologies… Click on image to read on […]

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No70, 18 October 2012

No70 – 18 October 2012 Click on image to read on Paper.li or scroll down to access current issue below.

Assessing the “Strategic” in Surprise

Practically applying the idea of “strategic surprise” when anticipating new threats is difficult as soon as one moves away from the general idea, and tries to be more specific about the strategic impact a surprise could have. The surprise part of the concept is relatively easily understood and envisioned. When imagining a threat or danger occurring, we don’t have any problem identifying and explaining the many reasons why this event could happen unexpectedly and find us unprepared. Assessing, estimating and understanding these incriminated causes, then remedying them, is more complex, indeed the raison d’être of strategic foresight and warning and risk management, and the topic of many studies. The strategic dimension, for its part, is more elusive and far less […]

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The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No68, 4 October 2012

No68 – 4 October 2012 Click on image to read on Paper.li.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No67, 27 September 2012

No67 – 27 September 2012 The overall global situation is seriously deteriorating and escalating, with one more potential flashpoint in the Far East (Diaoyu Islands: China and Taiwan, Japan, and the other strategic players of the region, i.e. the two Korea, the U.S., Russia) and, to make things worst, many who are just insisting everything […]

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