dynamics

Mapping risk and uncertainty is the second step of a proper process to correctly anticipate and manage risks and uncertainties. This stage starts with building a model, which, once completed, will describe and explain the issue or question at hand, while allowing for anticipation or foresight. In other words, with the end of the first step, you have selected a risk, an uncertainty, or a series of risks and uncertainties, or an issue of concern, with its proper time frame and scope, for example, what are the risks and uncertainties to my investment portfolio within the next 18 months to 3 years, or what will be the future of the emerging artificial intelligence world over the next twenty years, or what are the risks and uncertainties to my activity within the next fiver years as a result of China’s rise.

Once this initial question is defined, the second stage is about constructing our underlying model for understanding, i.e. mapping our risk or issue.

As Professor Joshua Epstein underlines, constructing a model – i.e. modeling – is nothing more, actually, than making explicit the hidden, implicit, model we, as human beings, are using when thinking. Epstein lists 16 advantages that result from this explicit modeling, to which we can add a couple more. Among these, we can notably highlight that, in terms of intelligence and anticipation analysis, making the model explicit will help identifying various cognitive, normative and emotional biases, thus allowing for their mitigation. Thanks to this modeling we can think out of the box and overcome silos. Then, the model and its construction will help defining areas of uncertain understanding, which can then be marked for further study, inquiry and research. Meanwhile, an explicit model will also help us working collaboratively, while communication will be greatly eased and enhanced, notably by using tools developed for big data analytics.

How are we thus to transform our inner implicit and imperfect model about the risk and uncertainty of concern into a proper and efficient explicit model to assess correctly risks and uncertainties, design critical responses and communicate about both risks and the decisions taken to manage them?

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[Fully rewritten version v3] To exist, risk and foresight products as well as warnings must be delivered to those who must act upon them, the customers, clients or users. These anticipation analyses must also be actionable, which means that they need to include the right information necessary to see action taken. Yet, if you deliver … Continue reading Revisiting Timeliness for Strategic Foresight and Warning and Risk Management

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No42, 5 April 2012

No42 – 5 April 2012 Click on the image below to read on Paper.Li (best with mobiles & tablets)

Higher levels of tension, worst impacts, more dangerous dynamics – Watch out at least for: Italy, Greece, Spain (protests or more?); EU, US and the world (global systemic crisis); Iran, US, EU, Israel; very bad news on climate change; food sec (China, India); Anonymous.

The Red (team) Analysis No 42 - Horizon Scanning for National Security

The initial variables chosen to start building our scenario are the five most important variables according to Eigenvector centrality, as explained in Revisiting influence analysis. We shall now choose values for each criterion. Consistency is then checked, but only for the variables that are linked (see the consistency matrix). As we aim at finding a plausible and average, mild set of initial criteria, we shall start from the following set, which is also intuitively representative of the situation, real or perceived, in which many real world countries have found themselves for a couple of years. We then verify that the chosen scenarios are consistent with the consistency matrix. Even if the aim is to obtain timelines that are as precise … Continue reading Everstate’s characteristics

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Go back to Part 1

Actually, any SF&W model as it primarily deals with time should be a dynamic network. How can we expect obtaining any potential outline for the future if our model for understanding is static?

Our map thus aims at representing the potential dynamics of polities. We shall notably use Ertman’s work on past state-building, but making it adaptable to present and future conditions.

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