Tag Archives: Europe

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals for strategic, political & geopolitical issues of interest to private and public actors.
Brief Editorial: It increasingly looks as if the world “functioned” on different interactive international layers: the overshadowing U.S.-China tension, change of paradigm and rise of artificial intelligence plus space, … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
21 June 2018

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals…
—–
Each section of the scan below focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present information, … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
26 October 2017

This article is the second of our series focusing on scenarios depicting the range of spillover that could stem from the Libyan war. In our previous article, we detailed two scenarios of spillover that initiate a renewed war encompassing more than just Libya. We discussed a case of spillover in one direction – where Europe is drawn into this renewed war, as well as spillover in two directions, where Algeria and Niger are also drawn into the war. In this article, we shall conclude the spillover scenarios with a contagion taking place in all directions (west towards Algeria, south towards Niger, east towards Egypt, and north towards Europe). It is important to note our choices for spillover sub-scenarios. There are … Continue reading The Libyan War Spills Over to Egypt, Algeria, Niger and Europe – Scenarios for the Future of Libya

To access this article, you must become one of our members.
Methodological articles are also accessible through registration to our online course.

Log in if you are a member.

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Each section focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present information, when facts and events interact across boundaries. … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 231 – 3 December 2015

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Each section focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics – this week, unsurprisingly, the focus is on Russia, the U.S. and the Syrian theatre of war as well as potential consequences regarding the overt Russian involvement,Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 222 – 1 October 2015

Over the last two decades, strategic surprises have accumulated and accelerated rather than receded, and they continue to do so. Various actors, from governments and international organisations to the corporate world through citizens seem to be constantly and increasingly surprised by events they fail to anticipate, and thus for which they are unprepared.
The Arab Spring (e.g. … Continue reading Multiplicating Crises: Strategic Surprises or Strategic Shocks?

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Read the 12 March scan →  Editor’s note: Although the piece below focuses on climate change, and worrying development accumulating over the past weeks, it is applicable to all sciences and more broadly to all analyses. It notably links perfectly well with the developing controversy and possibly wedge taking place between Germany on the one hand (and most probably a host of European countries), and, on the other, anti-Russian hawks notably in NATO and the U.S., regarding information on the civil war in Ukraine, and Russian military involvement there. This piece is also crucial in terms of SF&W monitoring and scanning. Meanwhile, it underlines how crucial it is to stretch thinking and not becoming so focused … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 194 – Information, Climate Change, and the Eighth Circle of Inferno

To access this article, you must become one of our members.
Methodological articles are also accessible through registration to our online course.

Log in if you are a member.

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… We present below some of the most interesting or relevant features for each section. Read the 12 February scan →  World (all matters related to war, international and national security) – In terms of major issues, increasingly, one week looks very much like the next, as matters get entrenched. However, within each issue, problems emerge, evolve and sometimes coalesce. Joseph Nye, in his small but excellent book Understanding International Conflicts: An Introduction to Theory and History, wrote in a part aptly named The Funnel of Choices: “Events close in over time, degrees of freedom are lost and the probability of war increases. But the funnel of choices available to leaders might open up again, and degrees of freedom could … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 191 – Minsk and the Probability of War

To access this article, you must become one of our members.
Methodological articles are also accessible through registration to our online course.

Log in if you are a member.

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… We present below some of the most interesting or relevant features for each section. World (all matters related to war, international and national security) – With the return of war to Eastern Ukraine, we are witnessing an interesting effort by some authors to try to make sense of a US-led foreign policy and analysis of the world that does not appear to make sense to them, besides, of course, the host of usual anti-Russian articles. The articles in The American Interest  (“Putin’s World: In It To Win It” by Walter Russell Mead) and Salon (“Distortions, lies and omissions: The New York Times won’t tell you the real story behind Ukraine, Russian economic collapse” by Patrick … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 189 – Why an anti-Russian “Western” Foreign Policy?

To access this article, you must become one of our members.
Methodological articles are also accessible through registration to our online course.

Log in if you are a member.

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… We present below the most interesting or relevant features for each section.
World (all matters related to war, international and national security) –  This week, we can point out, besides many other signals and articles, a must read article on “Putin’s Great Gamble” … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 176 – Europe Unexpected Power Waiting to be Used