Horizon Scanning for National Security No118: If the situation in the Middle East definitely requires to be paid attention to, the East and the Far East deserve no less, as Japan seeks to change its constitution, India continues to try asserting and expanding its role, and Central Asia is increasingly entrenched as a crucial geopolitical node. Meanwhile, news and studies regarding the adverse impact of climate change are at odds with some trends in energy security and with the tale according to which “rich countries” will be less hurt, while monetary policies, notably quantitative easing, remain controversial.
Global Trends 2030 is the 5th edition of the foresight document the U.S. National Intelligence Council prepares every four years and publicly publishes just after the presidential election. It aims at being “a forward-looking document to aid policymakers in their long-term planning on key issues of worldwide importance.” In the words of Chris Kojm, current … Continue reading Puzzle: Strange Parallels in Global Trends 2030
Last week, as I was looking for good websites and twitter users to follow the students’ movement in Quebec, its support by and links to the other worldwide opposition movements, and to try to assess how it could evolve, I found this really useful, informative and beautiful website displaying a timeline of the events done … Continue reading A Beautiful Timeline Visualisation: TimelineJS by VéritéCo
No50 – 31 May 2012 – Click on the image below to read on Paper.Li (best with mobiles & tablets)
Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, in a first scenario, Everstate’s governing bodies implement the Mamominarch programme of drastic reduction of state’s spending. By 2018 EVT, the result is involution, with … Continue reading 2018 – 2023 EVT – Escalation (Mamominarch)
No43 – 12 April 2012 Click on the image below to read on Paper.Li (best with mobiles & tablets)
The tragic events that strike Everstate are instances of the various conditions presiding to Everstate’s destiny, considering what has been done, or not, globally, regionally and within Everstate. The same set of events will be used to stress test each scenario (respecting, of course, the logic of the scenario, in case it impacts the plausibility … Continue reading 2013 – 2018 EVT – Tragic events
No40 – 24 March 2012 – Click on the image below to read on Paper.Li (best with mobiles & tablets) (archives are still not back online – update March 29)
No39 – 15 March 2012 Click on the image below to read on Paper.Li (best with mobiles & tablets)
No34, 9th February 2012
Not if but when? It looks like the small window of opportunity that was trying hard to open regarding Iran is closing, while weak signals are a warning of a revival of the global crisis throughout all countries, with China still cast as potential winner.
Click on the picture below to access No34