The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No118, 19 September 2013

Horizon Scanning for National Security No118: If the situation in the Middle East definitely requires to be paid attention to, the East and the Far East deserve no less, as Japan seeks to change its constitution, India continues to try asserting and expanding its role, and Central Asia is increasingly entrenched as a crucial geopolitical node. Meanwhile, news and studies regarding the adverse impact of climate change are at odds with some trends in energy security and with the tale according to which “rich countries” will be less hurt, while monetary policies, notably quantitative easing, remain controversial.

Puzzle: Strange Parallels in Global Trends 2030

Global Trends 2030 compares our current transition period with 1815, 1919, 1945 and 1989. Yet we have not known recently any global systemic war. Thus why choose such a comparison? What could explain such a puzzling choice and what could we learn from it, for our understanding of the world and its potential future(s)?

To access this article, you must become one of our members. Log in if you are a member.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No50, 31 May 2012

No50 – 31 May 2012 – Click on the image below to read on Paper.Li (best with mobiles & tablets)

2018 – 2023 EVT – Escalation (Mamominarch)

Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, in a first scenario, Everstate’s governing bodies implement the Mamominarch programme of drastic reduction of state’s spending. By 2018 EVT, the result is involution, with a rising insecurity for most Everstatans. The now fragile state cannot efficiently manage the complex catastrophes that start hitting Everstate in May. As a result, tension rises relatively uniformly while grievances increase heterogeneously. Inability to answer this multiform situation leads to a new political mobilisation, besides the classical old parties, proponents of Mamominarch: movements for local independence and direct membership in the Regional Union, including a powerful Movement for… Read More

To access this article, you must become one of our members. Log in if you are a member.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No43, 12 April 2012

No43 – 12 April 2012 Click on the image below to read on Paper.Li (best with mobiles & tablets)

2013 – 2018 EVT – Tragic events

Tragic events strike Everstate. We witness tornadoes and drought, war in the Middle East and even a major industrial accident, while a new episode of financial crisis starts. These are instances of the various conditions presiding to Everstate’s destiny, considering what has been done, or not, globally, regionally and within Everstate.

The same set of events should be used to stress test each scenario. The logic of the scenario will however comes first, assuming it impacts the plausibility of the event. In that case, ….

To access this article, you must become one of our members. Log in if you are a member.

Paper.Li is back: The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No40, 24 March 2012

No40 – 24 March 2012 – Click on the image below to read on Paper.Li (best with mobiles & tablets) (archives are still not back online – update March 29)

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No34, 9th February 2012

No34, 9th February 2012 Not if but when? It looks like the small window of opportunity that was trying hard to open regarding Iran is closing, while weak signals are a warning of a revival of the global crisis throughout all countries, with China still cast as potential winner. Click on the picture below to access… Read More

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No33, 2nd February 2012

No33, 2nd February 2012 Convergence? As an opportunity to see tension appeased with Iran, although not shared by all, appears, as beliefs in financial and economic recovery emerge, convergence of heavy threats could also take place in the background, with now a heavy cyber-security component in terms of ways and means. Click on the picture below… Read More