2012 predictions for conventional and unconventional national security
Every year, a host of actors, from newspapers to magazines, from think tanks to futurists and other experts, publish predictions at the dawn of every New Year.
The aim here is to create a repository of all the predictions done for 2012 that are directly or indirectly related to national security, … Continue reading 2012 predictions for conventional and unconventional national security
This second article on The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb emphasises some of the author’s points that could be useful to foresight and warning and all work dealing with anticipation, from risk management to horizon scanning through early warning. Many of those themes are actually allowed by the SF&W methodology, … Continue reading Useful Rules for Foresight from Taleb’s The Black Swan