This second article on The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb emphasises some of the author’s points that could be useful to foresight and warning and all work dealing with anticipation, from risk management to horizon scanning through early warning. Many of those themes are actually allowed by the … Continue reading Useful Rules for Foresight from Taleb’s The Black Swan
As the label “black swans” is increasingly used but with different interpretations, this post reviews Taleb’s bestseller, the meaning of black swans events and evaluates if the author truly points to the absurdity of foresight.
If cognitive biases are the enemy of analysis, they can become the ally of the foresight practitioner delivering products to clients, with the use of fictionalized scenario narratives.
Second part of the list of open sources predictions for 2013 related to conventional and unconventional national security.
Open sources predictions for 2013 published on the web related to conventional and unconventional national security and as foreword a few methodological posts on predictions and forecasts.
A database of open source 2012 predictions, and graph on selected issues.
2012 predictions for conventional and unconventional national security Every year, a host of actors, from newspapers to magazines, from think tanks to futurists and other experts, publish predictions at the dawn of every New Year. The aim here is to create a repository of all the predictions done for 2012 that are directly or indirectly related to … Continue reading 2012 predictions for conventional and unconventional national security