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The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No127, 21 November 2013

Editorial – This week, three main themes stand out. They are unsurprising as we have been following them for a while, yet they show how difficult it may be to warn about an issue, i.e. to convince a client or an audience that a signal is neither noise nor anymore weak but strong (e.g. changes … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No127, 21 November 2013

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No119, 26 September 2013

Horizon Scanning for National Security – Batman’s Gotham City with an international twist? The world is being profoundly reshaped: China’s global land grab, the battle for the Arctic and the importance of extreme environments for resources, a fast changing unsettled Middle-East, the importance of Central Asia, the return of a pre-World War I type of capitalist world, … Continue reading The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No119, 26 September 2013

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No104, 13 June 2013

In the midst of turmoil – Once you get beyond the tsunami of articles regarding the NSA, we continue seeing the same pattern of deep and painful changes emerging as observed over the last months. Eurozone countries are not only in crisis, but, most probably, living through a deep shift. For now, Greece leads the … Continue reading The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No104, 13 June 2013

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No98, 2 May 2013

Imagination, boldness, vision and fortitude wanted – How do you face a changing world fraught with more threats and impossible choices when you have less resources, or when resources are concentrated where national security responsibilities are not? Click on the image below to read on Paper.Li.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No87, 14 February 2013

Horizon Scanning for National Security No87 – A new universal panacea is born: shale gas and oil? Should we not rejoice and forget the rest?

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No78, 13 December 2012

Horizon Scanning for National Security – No78: Political decisions in Greece and Ireland (see videos) question two fundamental norms ruling statehood in the international system: sovereignty and territoriality, while the third one, independence fares not much better under conditions of globalized financial pressure and crisis. What will be the impact of those deep changes in a world where threats abound, some of them conventional, other much newer but no less damaging (as Sandy)?

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No77, 6 December 2012

As expected last week the situation in Egypt did not stabilize and many other issues escalate. Also, of particular interest this week as weak signal, we find the importance of religion in times of hardship, when all hopes seem to be lost. Considering the power of mobilisation and radicalisation of religion, this factor is to be kept in mind.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No76, 29 November 2012

No76 – 29 November 2012 Many signals with potential crucial strategic impacts, and among them, Egyptian President Morsi and his decree granting him absolute powers, continuing, rising discontent in Europe, and the BRIC’S move on the global financial chessboard. Click on image to read on Paper.li or scroll down to access current issue below.

Occupy, Los Indignados: towards radicalization?

The polarisation that can be observed in recent elections in 2012, notably in Greece and in France for the first round of the Presidential elections, appears to also take place within some of the current Opposition Movements existing outside the classical party system. Those movements, Occupy and Democracia Real Ya! – also known as Los Indignados, born out of Spain’s mobilisation last year, are showing their continuing presence, notably with various protests staged on May Day, then between 12 and 15 May, more or less followed according to cities and countries.

A beginning of radicalization would, so far, touch more specifically the American Occupy movement. Already, in February and March, it gave rise to a debate on the tactics that should be used, as analysed by Stuart Jeanne Bramhall in “Debating Violence in the Occupy Movement.”

In May 2012, Occupy still displays weak signals of rising tension, which could lead to escalation. Those signs can be seen, for example, in the acronym chosen to prepare for May Day and then used on social networks such as Twitter: #M1GS (May 1st Global Strike), also reads MIGS, which refers to the Soviet and then Russian fighter aircraft, and thus carries with it a symbolism referring to war and opposition to the American and allies governments during the Cold War.

As shown in the gallery below (click on each thumbnail to see the image), some of the pictures surrounding M1GS, compared with the images used the year before, notably for the birth of the Spanish Movement, or with the more European 12M-15M 2012 protests, also tend to signal that a radicalization is happening. M1GS uses notably the colour red, as well as sometimes a more offensive symbolism. All transmit an aggressive feeling. 12M-15M continues to favour as colours yellow and black, which tends to warn of danger ahead and thus suggests caution. However, one can also find one call for 15M that adopts a red background and the symbolism of a fist.

Will radicalization spread and intensify? This will depend upon the interactions with the existing political authorities and, in a related way, upon the capability of the movements to obtain concrete results. It is definitely an issue that needs to be monitored in the coming months.

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Images

“12 M Puerta del Sol Aerial” in Jerome Roos On May 13, 2012#12mGlobal Indignados take back square on movement’s anniversary Madrid,” DRY International.

“Polish MiG-29 (version 9.12A) from the base in Królewo Malborskie near Malbork” by Łukasz Golowanow (website Konflikty.pl), via Wikimedia Commons.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No45, 26 April 2012

No45 – 26 April 2012 – Click on the image below to read on Paper.Li (best with mobiles & tablets)

Rising prospects of global unrest: Knowing that feelings of injustice thus of unfairness are a major incentive for unrest, the BBC poll’s results are a crucial signal for the evolution of political dynamics in the coming years. Meanwhile, in a related way and unsurprisingly, in Europe a polarisation regarding best ways  – and for whom – to address the economic, financial, budgetary and fiscal situation is taking place. The tension with Iran does not improve. The only positive sign is space exploration that could be the real way forward to solve the energy crisis, but on the long term.