Having evaluated the likelihood for each scenario for the future of Libya (see detail here), we shall now present updated likelihoods that account for changes that have taken place since we began the evaluations. Because both intervention and spillover are already undoubtedly occurring in Libya, our scenarios are now considered sub-scenarios of Scenario 2: Intervention … Continue reading Final Scenario for the Future of Libya and their Likelihoods
After having focused on understanding the actors in Libya’s civil war, with this article we shall continue detailing the scenarios assessing the potential for a peaceful solution for Libya’s future within the next three to five years, suggest indicators to monitor their happenstance and progressively evaluating their likelihood. The first phases for this scenario were presented here (scenario 1.1 “Peace treaty signed” and 1.1.1. “Unity Government formed”) and the organisation of the whole series of scenarios for the future of Libya can be found here. The analysis and indicators below suggest that sub-scenario 184.108.40.206 is unlikely to succeed without international assistance, which we shall discuss in sub-scenario 220.127.116.11. Scenarios 1: Towards Peace – continued Summary of the previous phase-scenarios The … Continue reading Scenarios for the Future of Libya – Scenarios 1 (2) – a Victorious United Government?