Climate change is not only a far away danger. Its effects have also most probably already started impacting us, as the rising number of natural catastrophes and related overall losses worldwide show. What are the consequences on states and governments? Should we continue reducing public expenditures in those conditions?
The pattern that has been emerging over at least the beginning of the second decade of the twenty-first century is a rising polarization within Western society – or societies. In this article, we identified and analysed the trend through the related signal – the 14 November 2012 strikes. We evaluated the evolution toward polarization as … Continue reading Pattern – Towards Polarization in the Western World?
Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, in a first scenario, Everstate’s governing bodies implement as policies the conclusions of the Mamominarch Commission: a programme of drastic reduction of public expenses over five years through devolution, privatisation and outsourcing. By 2018 EVT, the policies do not lead to a current account surplus as expected nor to a reimbursement of public debt but to a rising current account deficit as well as to the withering away of the nation’s income. (The reader can click on each picture to see a larger version in a new tab – a navigating map of … Continue reading 2013 – 2018 EVT – Involution (Mamominarch)
Everstate is an imaginary state in our contemporary world of the beginning of the 21st century created to identify and imagine various futures. It will be used to represent all states and each state. Everstate is thus an ideal-type state and a shorthand for the model that was constructed to represent the dynamics and processes underlying the evolution of a state, as political form, a dynamic map or network, as will be explained in detail this week in a second and third post. However, even if we work with an ideal-type, events do not unfold in a vacuum but are dependent and constrained by a host of specific factors, most notably geography, the ecological milieu and history. Thus to make … Continue reading Creating Everstate
As riots and protests have been progressively, and in an accelerating way, occurring in many countries, starting with France in 2005, as public deficits have become structural and entrenched, made more acute by the financial and economic crisis triggered in 2007 by the sub-primes, it became increasingly clear that something was happening at the very … Continue reading The Chronicles of Everstate: foreseeing the future of the modern nation-state