Strategic foresight and warning or more broadly anticipation is a step by step process to anticipate the future in an actionable way. The graphic ideal type process displayed below is the result of more than a decade of work with and about systems of anticipation, from early warning systems to prevent conflicts for aid agencies to … Continue reading Visualising the Steps to Foresee the Future and Get Ready for It

Every year, The Economist, in its “The World in…” series, assesses it successes and failures regarding its past yearly forecasts (e.g. for 2012). This is an exemplary behaviour that should be adopted by all practitioners: if we are to deliver good and actionable strategic foresight and warning, and to improve our process, methodology and thus our final products, then we should always evaluate our work. Having now completed our last series of updates on the state of play for the Syrian war, we can now start assessing how our own scenarios and indicators fared so far, if they need to be updated and the potential methodological improvements that we should endeavour. Evaluating the scenarios As the Geneva conference took place (see previous … Continue reading Evaluating Scenarios and Indicators for the Syrian War

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The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No57, 19 July 2012 to 66, 20 September 2012

No57 – 19 July 2012 to No 66 – 20 September 2012

Read on No57 to No66

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No56, 13 July 2012

No56 – 13 July 2012 – Click on the image below to read on Paper.Li (best with mobiles & tablets)

As we are testing new ways to gather weak signals, and as the results obtained yesterday were not satisfying, this week, exceptionally, The Weekly is published on Friday. It will resume being published on Thursdays next week. Over the summer, most of the time, the information gathered will be raw, i.e. not edited, thus don’t hesitate to dig deep into the various sections to find weak signals and signals seeing their strength evolving.

Horizon scanning is a term that appeared in the early years of the 21st century and is not well-defined, being at once a tool part of the whole foresight process and a way to label this entire process (Habbeger, 2009).* We shall here consider horizon scanning as a specific tool and contrast it to monitoring, … Continue reading Horizon Scanning and Monitoring for Anticipation: Definition and Practice