Global Trends 2030 compares our current transition period with 1815, 1919, 1945 and 1989. Yet we have not known recently any global systemic war. Thus why choose such a comparison? What could explain such a puzzling choice and what could we learn from it, for our understanding of the world and its potential future(s)?
No30, 12th January 2012 Sitting on a powder keg: The signals of the last weeks are growing stronger. Tension with Iran continues to increase, and impact on oil prices could starkly affect the economy – and financial markets and trade and supply – while uncertainty regarding the economic situation in China and India rises. Meanwhile, […]
Horizon scanning for national and international security: identifies, through social networks’ crowdsourcing, signals that point to new, emerging, escalating or stabilizing problems and issues – This week, unsurprisingly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Syria, Ukraine… but also the very bleak OECD report on our future, among others. Click on image to read the Weekly Powered by Paper.Li.
As expected last week the situation in Egypt did not stabilize and many other issues escalate. Also, of particular interest this week as weak signal, we find the importance of religion in times of hardship, when all hopes seem to be lost. Considering the power of mobilisation and radicalisation of religion, this factor is to be kept in mind.
Horizon Scanning for National Security No84 – Wars in a revised socio-economic order – The gathered signals seem to point (unsurprisingly) towards the following questions: Will there be a war between China and Japan? Will Israel attack Iran? Will a new – or rather old (similar to what existed before the birth of the Soviet Union)- economy with entrenched inequalities and the disappearance of a large middle class settles in? Shall Greece be the first to violently rebel against it?
Horizon Scanning for National Security No90: Some Light within Darkness – For a change, let us focus on the positive (within the multiple remaining and rising challenges): climate change and environmental factors emerge this week as being increasingly integrated within our understanding of the complex dynamics at work in conflicts and more broadly threats or dangers to national security. Is the painting depicted scarier? Certainly, but understanding is also a crucial step towards solving properly problems… hopefully.