The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
14 June 2018

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Read below our latest complimentary Weekly horizon scanning… Each section of the scan focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; AI, technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
24 May 2018

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… For other weak (and strong) signals, read below our latest complimentary Weekly horizon scanning… Each section of the scan focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; AI, technology and weapons; energy […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
3 May 2018

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Weak signals selected for the week: According to the signals crowdsourced, the Islamic State is far from being vanquished, while Libya is likely to be back on the agenda. Don’t miss too the rising tension between China and the U.S., the battles being fought […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
11 January 2018

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Each section of the scan below focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present information, […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
2 November 2017

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… —– Each section of the scan below focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present […]

Everything you Need to Know to Understand the Islamic State’s Terrorist Attacks, Cope … and Fight Back

Whatever way one wants to see it, despite defeats in Syria, Iraq, Libya, and the Philippines, the Islamic State has not disappeared and will most probably remain a feature of our world for some times. The regular terrorist attacks taking place throughout the world are there to remind us that to win over ideas – […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
26 October 2017

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… —– Each section of the scan below focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
28 September 2017

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… —– Each section of the scan below focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
21 September 2017

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… —– Each section of the scan below focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present […]

Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya – A Lasting Salafist Victory

In this article, however unlikely it would appear currently*, we shall assess the likelihood of a lasting victory by the Salafists — in other words, the ability of Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State to not only achieve victory, but also to maintain lasting control. By victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers. In the previous article, we evaluated the likelihood for the initial victory of both Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, finding that an Al-Qaeda victory was least unlikely. Now that intervention is already occurring, as we saw in our article on intervention scenarios, the “Salafist Victory” scenarios are considered to be sub-scenarios of […]

To access this article, you must become one of our members. Log in if you are a member.