The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
10 May 2018

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Weak signals selected for the week: Unsurprisingly, an overwhelming number of signals are about Iran. For other weak (and strong) signals, read below our latest complimentary Weekly horizon scanning… Each section of the scan focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
3 May 2018

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Weak signals selected for the week: According to the signals crowdsourced, the Islamic State is far from being vanquished, while Libya is likely to be back on the agenda. Don’t miss too the rising tension between China and the U.S., the battles being fought […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
12 April 2018

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Is a highly dangerous new phase of the war in Syria – to remain conservative – starting? Which actor(s) could best benefit (at least on the short-term) from such tragic developments? Read below our latest complimentary Weekly horizon scanning… Each section of the scan […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
18 January 2018

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Each section of the scan below focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present information, […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
14 December 2017

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… —– Each section of the scan below focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
7 December 2017

This week’s weak (and less weak) signals …from threat of nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula to renewed turmoil in the Middle East over American Jerusalem status’ decision through war in Yemen, lowered Asian concern over the South China Sea or AI…

Israel and the Coming Long Threat – The Planetary Crisis Rules (4)

Israel faces an unexpected and immensely dangerous strategic threat: climate change. This threat is shared with the rest of the world: it is the way climate change keeps getting stronger and how its effects are combining with pre-existing systems of vulnerabilities at country and regional level, the Middle East in the case of Israel (Dahr […]

Assessing the “Strategic” in Surprise

Practically applying the idea of “strategic surprise” when anticipating new threats is difficult as soon as one moves away from the general idea, and tries to be more specific about the strategic impact a surprise could have. The surprise part of the concept is relatively easily understood and envisioned. When imagining a threat or danger occurring, we don’t have any problem identifying and explaining the many reasons why this event could happen unexpectedly and find us unprepared. Assessing, estimating and understanding these incriminated causes, then remedying them, is more complex, indeed the raison d’être of strategic foresight and warning and risk management, and the topic of many studies. The strategic dimension, for its part, is more elusive and far less […]

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The Iran Crisis Sigils

The Iran Crisis Sigils, focusing on tensions with Iran and their geostrategic environment, is part of The Sigils, a series of daily papers scanning the horizon for weak signals related to various issues relevant to the security of societies, polities, nations and citizens. They use Paper.Li as curation platform. The Iran Crisis Sigils can be read by […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
19 October 2017

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… —– Each section of the scan below focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present […]