Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… For other weak (and strong) signals, read below our latest complimentary Weekly horizon scanning… Each section of the scan focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; AI, technology and weapons; energy […]
No69 – 11 October 2012 Potential stabilisation in the East China Sea, with a move from Japan, still uncertain improvement considering Japanese domestic tensions. Meanwhile the situation in the Middle East and in Europe deteriorates. Most notably, the participation of reservists to the demonstrations yesterday in Greece could be a weak signal of potential escalation. […]
Horizon Scanning for National security No89 – Look East: Indicators are turning red! The possibility of war – between China and Japan… and the US (security treaties can also have an escalating effect) and ? – is now very much on the agenda, despite all wishful thinking and previous disbelief. The dire financial situation of Japan, which everyone tries so hard to ignore, while US potential sequestration shockwaves nears and Europe polarizes, are not the most stabilizing context and factors. We had a window of opportunity, at the beginning of February, it closed. Shall we see another opening up of “the funnel of choices” (Nye, 1993: 68-69)?
The possibility of international intervention in Libya looks increasingly likely. Indeed, on 16 February, Egypt officially attacked the Islamic State component in Libya in retaliation against the murder there of twenty-one Egyptian Copts, again used by the Islamic State as yet another brutal psyops video, “A Message signed in Blood to the Nation of the Cross”, depicting their beheading (“Egypt launches air strikes against Islamic State in Libya“, Al Ahram, 16 February 2015; Karasik, “Black Flags over Libya show ISIS is on the warpath“, Al Arabyia News, 16 February 2015). Meanwhile, Italy closed down its embassy and its Defense Minister stated Italy’s readiness “to lead a coalition from Europe and north African states to battle against the advance of Jihadis in Libya”, because “The risk is […]
No56 – 13 July 2012 – Click on the image below to read on Paper.Li (best with mobiles & tablets) As we are testing new ways to gather weak signals, and as the results obtained yesterday were not satisfying, this week, exceptionally, The Weekly is published on Friday. It will resume being published on Thursdays […]
No72 – 1 November 2012 Some weak signals towards a change of paradigm, besides the usual tense hotspots and their aftermaths – which do contribute to the change of paradigm. Maybe an opening window of opportunity that might ease the escalation Israel-Iran… “maybe” because, there, signals are contradicting. Click on image to read on Paper.li […]