Horizon Scanning for National Security No88
Horizon Scanning for National Security No85 – Window of opportunity, rising tensions and creeping new order(s)? The political situation in Greece escalates, as in the MENA regions. Turkey’s interest in the SCO is particularly indicative. Positively, on China/Japan, a window of opportunity seems to be opening, yet on a backdrop of high tension, including considering the Japanese upcoming revision of wartime history… meanwhile a potential terrible new way to understand resilience regarding climate change would be emerging.
Horizon Scanning for National Security No84 – Wars in a revised socio-economic order – The gathered signals seem to point (unsurprisingly) towards the following questions: Will there be a war between China and Japan? Will Israel attack Iran? Will a new – or rather old (similar to what existed before the birth of the Soviet Union)- economy with entrenched inequalities and the disappearance of a large middle class settles in? Shall Greece be the first to violently rebel against it?
Horizon Scanning for National Security No83: Towards a multiplication of increasingly fragile states? This is what could mean the report on the state of infrastructures in the U.S. (and probably other so called rich countries?). It is a crucial weak signal that could trump all others: imagine weak, increasingly fragile “rich countries” on the backdrop of all the other tensions and threats…
Horizon Scanning for National Security – No82 – On relativity: If, for example, we believe that Greece will be in the G20 in 7 years or that we are at the end of the economic crisis, notably in Europe, that “new oil” developments and use of coal are very positive, then, Australia’s heat index or European unemployment figures or Basel’s new liquidity rule might be (only “might” of course) weak signals that something is amiss… if we don’t believe the initial statements then those indications are strong signals of escalation, among so many others.
As expected last week the situation in Egypt did not stabilize and many other issues escalate. Also, of particular interest this week as weak signal, we find the importance of religion in times of hardship, when all hopes seem to be lost. Considering the power of mobilisation and radicalisation of religion, this factor is to be kept in mind.
Last updated on March 3rd, 2014 at 05:15 pmNo72 – 1 November 2012 Some weak signals towards a change of paradigm, besides the usual tense hotspots and their aftermaths – which do contribute to the change of paradigm. Maybe an opening window of opportunity that might ease the escalation Israel-Iran… “maybe” because, there, signals are […]
Last updated on March 3rd, 2014 at 05:21 pmNo71 – 25 October 2012 Four main themes or meta issues today, none of them surprising, but all of them showing rising tensions and further problems: China… and Japan; Near-East/Middle-East; Europe’s crisis, Environmental changes and energy. To these add a few interesting developments in terms of capabilities […]