The Kurds and Rojava, State-Building in the Syrian War

During the Autumn 2013 and Winter 2014, we witnessed a major reconfiguration of forces in Syria, as seen previously, including with the rise of Salafi-Nationalists. This article looks at the evolution that took place in Western Kurdistan, notably the birth of novel political institutions, Rojava, and how and why the Kurds relate to the Geneva conference that took place in early 2014. Creating Rojava We recall that on 10 July 2013, the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) declared starting making plans to move towards some degree of autonomy for Rojava or the Syrian part of Kurdistan (see for detail 4 Nov 2013 update, 2.1.). News about Rojava and its “project” can be followed on its own website, created in August 2013. The PYD moved forward on 11 November 2013 […]

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The Kurds in Syria – State-Building, New Model and War

This article focuses on state-building in Syria’s Kurdish area, i.e. the Democratic Federal System of Northern Syria, also locally called Rojava, and potential impacts. Indeed, we saw previously that the Kurds’ capacity to build a viable polity in Northern Syria was one crucial element for evaluating not only the outcome of the battle of Raqqa against the Islamic State, but also the way Turkey could become further and more intensely embroiled in the conflict (see Helene Lavoix, “The Battle of Raqqa, the Kurds and Turkey“,  The Red (Team) Analysis Society, 2 May 2017). Extreme cases scenarios ☔  Scenario War with Turkey escalates ⛵ Directly Impacted Actors: All Eurasian + Middle East states, U.S. (military, diplo); NGOs (for Syria/Iraq/Turkey); Businesses in Turkey, Trade & exchanges with Turkey; Airlines; Maritime activities; Religious institutions… ⛅ Scenario Kurdish […]

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The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
12 April 2018

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Is a highly dangerous new phase of the war in Syria – to remain conservative – starting? Which actor(s) could best benefit (at least on the short-term) from such tragic developments? Read below our latest complimentary Weekly horizon scanning… Each section of the scan […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
5 April 2018

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… To summarise the state of the world and its potential futures this week: the “plot thickens”, tensions rise, the quagmire deepens… Read below our latest complimentary Weekly horizon scanning… Each section of the scan focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
8 March 2018

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… From breakthrough for quantum computing to the possibility of a new space war through ever-tense quagmire in the Middle East, Russia, China and, who knows, improvement on the Korean Peninsula, should the U.S. not perceive it as the beginning of the end of its […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
1 March 2018

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Each section of the scan below focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present information, […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
18 January 2018

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Each section of the scan below focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present information, […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
21 December 2017

As 2017 draws to a close, according to the signals of the Weekly and their evolution over the year, it seems that we are heading towards a year 2018 that is very different from 2017, with probably the rising tension – or “competition” between the U.S. and China – plus Russia – getting ready to […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
2 November 2017

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… —– Each section of the scan below focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present […]

Towards Renewed War in Syria? The Kurds and Turkey

“The entire world should know that we will never allow the establishment of a terror state across our borders in northern Syria. … We will continue to crush the head of the serpents in their nests. Here is my message to those who want to block the steps we will take for the survival of our […]