Tag Archives: Libya

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals…
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Each section of the scan below focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present information, … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
19 October 2017

Having evaluated the likelihood for each scenario for the future of Libya (see detail here), we shall now present updated likelihoods that account for changes that have taken place since we began the evaluations. Because both intervention and spillover are already undoubtedly occurring in Libya, our scenarios are now considered sub-scenarios of Scenario 2: Intervention and spillover instead of independent scenarios.   … Continue reading Final Scenario for the Future of Libya and their Likelihoods

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals…
—–
Each section of the scan below focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present information, … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
21 September 2017

In this article, however unlikely it would appear currently*, we shall assess the likelihood of a lasting victory by the Salafists — in other words, the ability of Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State to not only achieve victory, but also to maintain lasting control. By victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries,Continue reading Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya – A Lasting Salafist Victory

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In this article, we shall assess the likelihood of a total victory in Libya in the medium term by al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. By victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers. In the previous article, we evaluated the likelihood for the lasting victory of each government, … Continue reading Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya – A Salafist Victory?

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In this article, we shall assess the likelihood of a lasting victory by the GNC, GNA, and COR—in other words, the ability of each government to not only achieve victory, but also to maintain lasting control. By victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers. … Continue reading Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya – Scenarios of Victories (2)

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Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals…
Each section focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present information, when facts and events interact across boundaries. … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
1st June 2017

In this article, we shall assess the likelihood of a total victory by the GNC, GNA, and COR. By total victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers. In the previous article, we evaluated the likelihood for various spillover scenarios occurring both in the event of partition and without partition. … Continue reading Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya – Scenarios of Victories (1)

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Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… for identifying and monitoring political and geopolitical uncertainty.
Each section focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present information, … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
11 May 2017

As we discussed in the previous article, intervention and spillover are already occurring—thus we determined the likelihood of three partition scenarios occurring in the midst of intervention and spillover was highly unlikely. In this article, we shall discuss the organization, indicators, and likelihood of the various spillover scenarios occurring both in the event of partition and without partition. … Continue reading Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya – Scenario 2 Increased Spillover and Partition

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