Facing the Fog of War in Syria: The Syrian Islamists Play the Regional “Game of Thrones”

This second update covers the evolution in Syria from July to October 2013. It focuses first on dynamics of change involving the interplay between the Syrian Islamist factions on the ground and international players – especially the declaration of an “Islamic framework” and then the creation of the Islam Army, with impact on the overall situation, and provides an updated mapping for Syrian Islamist groups. It then looks at evolutions related to the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces. Syrian Sunni factions intending to install an Islamist state in Syria (For background and past state of play, see here) It is within those groups that we have been witnessing throughout September-October 2013 the most potent changes. As always, and as Lund […]

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Facing the Fog of War in Syria: Updates

As underlined when we started the series on Syria, one of the analytical challenges we face, in terms of strategic foresight and warning, is the fog of war. The, at time, rapid evolution of the situation, fits badly with any static mean to deliver analysis. We need, of course, to monitor what is happening, but also to regularly integrate this surveillance in our strategic analysis and finally to make it known to concerned audience (readers, decision-makers, policy-makers). After having outlined the methodological difficulties and presented the solution chosen, we shall focus on the updates themselves. Methodology: challenges and imperfect solutions First, in terms of periodicity and content of publication (delivery in SF&W jargon), a right balance must be found between […]

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Big Brother in France? Discussion on BBC World Service

The BBC World Service – World Have Your Say invites three experts, including from Red (team) Analysis, to discuss the alleged interception of phone and data by France’s foreign intelligence service, in a way similar to the US Prism programme.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No82, 10 January 2013

Horizon Scanning for National Security – No82 – On relativity: If, for example, we believe that Greece will be in the G20 in 7 years or that we are at the end of the economic crisis, notably in Europe, that “new oil” developments and use of coal are very positive, then, Australia’s heat index or European unemployment figures or Basel’s new liquidity rule might be (only “might” of course) weak signals that something is amiss… if we don’t believe the initial statements then those indications are strong signals of escalation, among so many others.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No69, 11 October 2012

No69 – 11 October 2012 Potential stabilisation in the East China Sea, with a move from Japan, still uncertain improvement considering Japanese domestic tensions. Meanwhile the situation in the Middle East and in Europe deteriorates. Most notably, the participation of reservists to the demonstrations yesterday in Greece could be a weak signal of potential escalation. […]

Twylah: another tool to add to your scanning and monitoring arsenal

If you are using Twitter as one of your favourite social network for scanning and monitoring, then it is worth the while adding Twylah to the array of webtools you can use. On a beautifully designed webpage, it will display the trending keywords related to your tweets, automatically identified, as well as your tweets sorted according to those categories. You can also, of course, have a look at what your favourite political leaders, media and sources see as crucial by consulting their Twylah pages. At a glance you can thus: See which signals you are following most, those that constitute themes, issues and start becoming or continue being problems. You can even discover that you are monitoring issues you had […]

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The East Seas Security Sigils

The East Seas Security Sigils aims to allow monitoring easily what is happening in the East Sea (with open source), thus following potential escalation, stabilisation and impacts. Considering the risk of spill-over from one problem onto the other, the East Seas Security Sigils focuses on the potential and actual tensions in the East China Sea, the […]

Can the Past Predict the Future? – Public Panel Event – Sept 13 2012 – Decorah, Iowa, U.S.

If ever you happen to be close to Decorah, Iowa, on September 13, 2012, join us for the panel event for a lively discussion (RT and share please).

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