As we discussed in the previous article, intervention and spillover are already occurring—thus we determined the likelihood of three partition scenarios occurring in the midst of intervention and spillover was highly unlikely. In this article, we shall discuss the organization, indicators, and likelihood of the various spillover scenarios occurring both in the event of partition and without partition. … Continue reading Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya – Scenario 2 Increased Spillover and Partition
This article is the second of our series focusing on scenarios depicting the range of spillover that could stem from the Libyan war. In our previous article, we detailed two scenarios of spillover that initiate a renewed war encompassing more than just Libya. We discussed a case of spillover in one direction – where Europe is drawn into this renewed war, … Continue reading The Libyan War Spills Over to Egypt, Algeria, Niger and Europe – Scenarios for the Future of Libya
Horizon Scanning for National Security No85 – Window of opportunity, rising tensions and creeping new order(s)? The political situation in Greece escalates, as in the MENA regions. Turkey’s interest in the SCO is particularly indicative. Positively, on China/Japan, a window of opportunity seems to be opening, yet on a backdrop of high tension, including considering the Japanese upcoming revision of wartime history… meanwhile a potential terrible new way to understand resilience regarding climate change would be emerging.