nuclear

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties

➚➚ Escalating AI-power race notably between the U.S. on the one hand, China and in a lesser way Russia on the other.
➚➚ Redrawing of the power map of the world along AI-power status lines
➚➚ Rising uncertainty regarding the emerging AI-world
Possible widening of the range of response,

Continue reading Signal: The Pentagon Researches Artificial Intelligence Systems for Nuclear Missile Launch Anticipation

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals…
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Each section of the scan below focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex world, categories are merely a convenient way to present information, … Continue reading The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
21 September 2017

Early 2016 has witnessed a succession of dramatic developments that have inflamed the already contentious Iran-Saudi relationship, bringing it to the forefront of global governmental and media attention. These have included: Riyadh’s decision to break diplomatic relations with Tehran at the beginning of the year, the accelerated decline of the price of oil deeply affecting both countries’ economies, the implementation of the Iran nuclear deal leading to Iran’s reinsertion into the global economic system, and a reversal of fortune in the Syrian civil war with Iranian and Russian-supported regime forces scoring major advances against the Saudi-backed opposition. We shall survey these developments (deferring, however, discussion of the fast changing situation in Syria to a later post) with the aim of … Continue reading Tempobs – Things Come Together: Saudi Arabia and Iran

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Events show that Pakistan is on the most advanced front lines of climate change. How thus should we re-read the already complex and interacting geopolitical, geostrategic and domestic situations of Pakistan and what does that mean strategically for the region and the world?

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The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No100, 16 May 2013

Horizon Scanning for National Security No100 – Redrawing the global strategic and geopolitical map: From the Syrian civil war and its impact on the region and beyond, with its many uncertainties, moving alliances and dilemmas, to the China-Japan unrelenting tension over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, through the rush for the Arctic, without forgetting the European quagmire and its multi-faceted apparently slow-moving polarization, this is actually the global political and strategic map that is being redrawn. How it will look like is still shrouded in the fog of war … or rather of wars, crises, and battles, present and, unfortunately, to come.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No89, 28 February 2013

Horizon Scanning for National security No89 – Look East: Indicators are turning red! The possibility of war – between China and Japan… and the US (security treaties can also have an escalating effect) and ? – is now very much on the agenda, despite all wishful thinking and previous disbelief. The dire financial situation of Japan, which everyone tries so hard to ignore, while US potential sequestration shockwaves nears and Europe polarizes, are not the most stabilizing context and factors. We had a window of opportunity, at the beginning of February, it closed. Shall we see another opening up of “the funnel of choices” (Nye, 1993: 68-69)?

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No86, 7 February 2013

Horizon Scanning for National Security No86 – On the persistence, resilience and escalation of tensions… despite (past) appearance and hope.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No83, 17 January 2013

Horizon Scanning for National Security No83: Towards a multiplication of increasingly fragile states? This is what could mean the report on the state of infrastructures in the U.S. (and probably other so called rich countries?). It is a crucial weak signal that could trump all others: imagine weak, increasingly fragile “rich countries” on the backdrop of all the other tensions and threats…