Occupy

France faces an escalating protest movement. This movement is called the “Yellow Vests”. The French government appears to be always late in the way it answers it; political analysts appear to be surprised by what is happening and to struggle to understand. Meanwhile, violence increases. To contribute to the explanation of the French Yellow Vest … Continue reading Understanding the French Yellow Vests Movement and its Crescendo (1)

Understanding how political authorities, in the past, managed to stabilize a protest movement sheds light on the political decisions taken in the present. This knowledge gives us tools and indicators to assess and monitor various contemporary situations and evaluate their future dynamics.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No76, 29 November 2012

No76 – 29 November 2012 Many signals with potential crucial strategic impacts, and among them, Egyptian President Morsi and his decree granting him absolute powers, continuing, rising discontent in Europe, and the BRIC’S move on the global financial chessboard. Click on image to read on Paper.li or scroll down to access current issue below.

Triggered by the financial and economic crisis, protests movements have spread, notably in Europe and in the U.S., be they famously named and democratic (Los Indignados/Real Democracy Now, Occupy, etc.) or not. We call them here the “new opposition nexus.” Despite much dismissal and their inner difficulties (intrinsic to new movements), they are now worrying … Continue reading Russia Today (RT): a New Media for a Polarizing World?

Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. Alarmed by the rising difficulties and widespread discontent, the governing authorities decide to do something when new elections start. Dependent upon programmes created to face efficiently past challenges, prisoners of entrenched political groupings, comforted in their vision by the BRICS’ success and renewed optimism, the major parties campaign to come back to the order ante. As a result, habits and the existing system, once the new national representatives are elected and the new government starts ruling, are even more entrenched, almost ossified. (The reader can click on each picture to see a larger … Continue reading 2012 EVT – New Government, New Opposition, Last Hope (Panglossy)

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The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No48, 17 May 2012

Unfortunately, after Paper.Li’s latest upgrade, No 48 17 May was replaced by an unedited 18 May edition. Only the editorial and photo of the first page below survived… On the bright side, we get back archives, but not for the past numbers.

No48 – 17 May 2012 – Click on the image below to read on Paper.Li (best with mobiles & tablets)

Besides the usual now strong signals on Iran, the fiscal crisis, Europe, water security, energy, etc. we can note this week that tension has risen at least one notch towards internal strife and turmoil and that an unusual number of signals are about India (which could also be linked to technical reasons, e.g. a larger use of twitter in India).

Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, in a first scenario, Everstate’s governing bodies implement the Mamominarch programme of drastic reduction of state spending over five years through devolution, privatisation and outsourcing. By 2018 EVT, the result is involution, with a fragilised governance including and implying the rise of lawlessness domestically, an abandoned mastery over international security, an inefficient economy and, as consequence, a rising insecurity for most Everstatans. The first set of tragic events – a tornadoes outbreak followed by a heat wave – that hits the West of Everstate soon becomes a complex catastrophe with dramatic … Continue reading 2018 – 2023 EVT – From Grievances to Political Mobilisation (Mamominarch)

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