Tag Archives: open access

All our freely available insights, foresights and articles.

You will find there notably in-depth articles, most of the time those presiding to the beginning of a new section, or to the start of the monitoring/scenario-building for a new issue.

You will also find shorter articles related to past weekly scans, which must be considered if future longer term trends and evolutions are to be understood.

The artificial intelligence (AI) world summit took place in Singapore on 3 and 4 October 2017 (The AI summit Singapore). If we follow this global trend of heavy emphasis on AI, we can note the convergence between artificial intelligence and the emergence of “smart cities” in Asia, especially in China (Imran Khan, … Continue reading The Chinese Artificial Intelligence Revolution

Whatever way one wants to see it, despite defeats in Syria, Iraq, Libya, and the Philippines, the Islamic State has not disappeared and will most probably remain a feature of our world for some times.
The regular terrorist attacks taking place throughout the world are there to remind us that to win over ideas – and the actions they prompt, … Continue reading Everything you Need to Know to Understand the Islamic State’s Terrorist Attacks, Cope … and Fight Back

“Airpocalypse” turns the air of the great Chinese cities into a kind of chronic and massive chemical attack. Meanwhile, ecological issues are gaining a new and strong political traction. In the meantime, China is also becoming a world leader of the digital transformation. In other words, two major dynamics run through China in the same time: the mammoth development of its digital transformation and the need and will to become an “ecological civilization”, … Continue reading China: Towards the Digital and Ecological Revolution?

Editor’s note: We have been monitoring “behind the scenes” the US Dollar Supremacy and the challenges it faces over the last couple of years. Indications show that it is now time to move towards strategic foresight analysis of the issue. This series results from this need and our in-depth analysis will constitute the building blocks for scenario analysis regarding the future of the US Dollar Supremacy.Continue reading Towards the End of the US Dollar Supremacy? Global Currency Fundamentals

The second decade of the 21st century appears to be rough for the U.S.. Could it mean that American power is waning? The question of a putative decline of the U.S. regularly emerges in international relations and in the media since at least the 1970s (Kenneth Waltz; Theory of International Politics, 1979: 177-178). … Continue reading Which U.S. Decline? The View from the U.S. National Intelligence Council

“The entire world should know that we will never allow the establishment of a terror state across our borders in northern Syria. … We will continue to crush the head of the serpents in their nests. Here is my message to those who want to block the steps we will take for the survival of our state and nation…” … Continue reading Towards Renewed War in Syria? The Kurds and Turkey

This article focuses on state-building in Syria’s Kurdish area, i.e. the Democratic Federal System of Northern Syria, also locally called Rojava, and potential impacts. Indeed, we saw previously that the Kurds’ capacity to build a viable polity in Northern Syria was one crucial element for evaluating not only the outcome of the battle of Raqqa against the Islamic State, … Continue reading The Kurds in Syria – State-Building, New Model and War

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This article focuses on the evolution of the balance of forces on the battlefield, notably for the Kurds, mainly in Syria but also in Iraq, one of the multiple layers of interactions that must be considered around the battle of Raqqa against the Islamic State. It is part of a series aiming at deciphering the various factors at work that will shape the outcome of the battle of Raqqa and thus impact the future. … Continue reading The Battle of Raqqa, the Kurds and Turkey

Having detailed the various potential scenarios for Libya’s future over the next three to five years, we shall now evaluate the likelihood of the scenarios thanks notably to their indicators. We shall use the methodology developed by The Red (Team) Analysis Society, building upon Heuer (“Assessing Probability of a Scenario”, in Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, … Continue reading Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya’s Future – Scenario 1

This article is the second part of our series focusing on the current development of the Russian Arctic region, while explaining and demonstrating the importance of using strategic thinking for governments as well as for business actors to understand current dynamical changes and to develop adequate strategies to face related geopolitical uncertainty.
In the first part, … Continue reading Strategic Thinking in the Russian Arctic: When Threats Become Opportunities (2)