Open Access

All our open access (free) complimentary and sponsored insights and foresights.

You will find here various in-depth articles, most of the time those presiding to the beginning of a new section, from in-depth analysis to monitoring of a new issue, through scenario-building.

Sponsored articles concern specific areas or issues or particularly important articles.

You will also find the signals of our Horizon Scanning board as well as shorter articles related to past weekly scans, which must be considered if future longer term trends and evolutions are to be understood.

All weekly scans for weak signals can be accessed here.

Since 2017, quantum information and technology science (QIS), and especially quantum computing, are quickly emerging as central in Hollywood and its movies, TV series and novels. Their scenarii emphasise the link between quantum power and national security situations. Hollywood and the U.S Strategic Debate This is a crucial indication, considering that the relation between the … Continue reading Quantum Computing, Hollywood and geopolitics

Beyond hype and hatred, this article focuses on the way Artificial Intelligence (AI) – actually Deep Learning – is integrated in reality, through sensor and actuator.* Operationalisation demands to develop a different way to look at AI. The resulting understanding allows highlighting the importance of sensor and actuator, the twin interface between AI and its … Continue reading Inserting Artificial Intelligence in Reality – Drivers of AI

Strategic Foresight and Warning (SF&W) is at once process and analysis. By SF&W analysis we mean all methodologies and related issues allowing for the development of an understanding grounded in reality that will generate best anticipatory products, useful to decision-makers and policy-makers for carrying out their mission (to find your way within the myriad of labels … Continue reading Strategic Foresight & Warning Analysis

Strategic foresight and warning or more broadly anticipation is a step by step process to anticipate the future in an actionable way. The graphic ideal type process displayed below is the result of more than a decade of work with and about systems of anticipation, from early warning systems to prevent conflicts for aid agencies to … Continue reading Visualising the Steps to Foresee the Future and Get Ready for It

The purpose of this article is to define a framework within which the Race to Quantum can be understood, to present an adequate tool to handle the multiple characteristics of this race, namely dynamic mapping – for mathematicians dynamic graphs – and to uncover parts of the dynamic map thus achieved as example of what is happening and what can be done to understand. The mapping presented here progressively includes the EU and the Netherlands, Germany, the U.S., China, then, moving to private actors, IBM and Vision Fund. read more…

On 3 December 2018, i.e. two days before the opening of the 2018 UN Climate Change Conference – its 24th meeting (COP 24), in Katowice, at the very heart of Poland coal country, Jair Bolsonaro, the new president of Brazil, announced that his country would not organize the following round of negotiations, i.e the COP … Continue reading Understanding (or not) the Nature of Climate Change as a Planetary Threat

France faces an escalating protest movement. This movement is called the “Yellow Vests” or “Yellow Vest”. The French government appears to be always late in the way it answers it; political analysts appear to be surprised by what is happening and to struggle to understand. Meanwhile, violence increases. To contribute to the explanation of the … Continue reading Understanding the French Yellow Vest Movement and its Crescendo (1)

This article provides a first assessment of the prospects for the German 3 billion euros funding for its new November 2018 Artificial Intelligence Strategy in the global AI-power race. It notably finds that this constitutes a possible challenge in the current AI-power race for private and public actors alike: Germany strikes back but the road ahead is competitive. The possible quantum disruption to AI might be one fruitful strategic choice for Germany, as well as for France and the UK (in a geographical and historical European perspective)…. Read more

Alors que nous entrons dans la «quatrième révolution industrielle», dans l’ère de la transformation numérique, dans un nouvel «IA-monde» et dans la «seconde révolution quantique», la sécurité nationale et internationale doit s’adapter. Elle doit le faire en anticipant ce monde futur, en évitant les surprises et les menaces tant nouvelles qu’anciennes, tout en saisissant les … Continue reading Modeler la Sécurité du Cyber Future – Agora 41, Assemblée Stratégique pour l’ANSSI

As we enter the “fourth industrial revolution”, the age of the digital transformation, a new emerging “AI-world”, and the “second quantum revolution”, national and international security must adapt. It must do so by anticipating this future world, avoiding surprises related to new – but also old – threats and dangers, while seizing the immense opportunities offered by what is no less than a change of paradigm (For the labels, respectively, Klaus Schwab, World Economic Forum, Helene Lavoix, The Future Artificial Intelligence – Powered World series, The Red (Team) Analysis Society, Jonathan P. Dowling, Gerard J. Milburn, “Quantum Technology: The Second Quantum Revolution”, 13 Jun 2002, arXiv:quant-ph/0206091v1).

Accès à la version française

The strategy related to cyber space and cyber security varies according to countries – and actors. It is handled in various ways by different types of agencies. After having briefly presented the main French, British and American state actors for cyber security, we shall focus on the French outlook and present the ANSSI, its goals and finally new outreach initiative, Agora 41.